Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Cultural LeonesaHomeWDLWL
Sun 8 Nov
PonferradinaAwayLDDDD393427
Cultural Leonesa winDrawPonferradina win
Cultural LeonesaHomeWDLWLPonferradinaAwayLDDDD- Kick-off Sun 8 Nov
- Expected goals
- 1.70 0.95 : 0.75
- Favourite
- 39% Cultural Leonesa
- Over 2.5 goals
- 24% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 32% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina odds comparison
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
Bookmakers have not opened Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina yet. The lines usually arrive within two days of kick-off, and the markets above show the fair price from the model until then.
73%
Our prediction
Cultural Leonesa or draw
1.37fair
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
76% chance1.32fair
BTTSNot both teams to score
68% chance1.47fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
51% chance1.97fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-0
18% chance5.46fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Draw, full-time Draw
26% chance3.88fair
First halfFirst-half goal
54% chance1.87fair
Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina prediction
Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina prediction, who wins and at what price
Cultural Leonesa host Ponferradina on Sunday, 8 November 2026 in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1, and the model has Cultural Leonesa at 39%, the draw at 34% and Ponferradina at 27%: that is the Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 0.95 for Cultural Leonesa and 0.75 for Ponferradina, a total of 1.70, which puts over 2.5 goals at 24% and both teams to score at 32%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is cultural Leonesa or draw at 73%. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.
A 34% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
Cultural Leonesa average 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Ponferradina 0.4 and 0.8 across 5.
A low-scoring Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 51%, over 2.5 at 24%, over 3.5 at 9%; under 2.5 is 76% and under 3.5 is 91%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 76%.
BTTS yes stands at 32%. Cultural Leonesa score in 61% of simulations against a 39% clean sheet for Ponferradina; Ponferradina score in 53% while Cultural Leonesa shut them out 47% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina: 0-0 (18.3%), 1-0 (17.4%) and 0-1 (13.7%).
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Draw, full-time Draw leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 54%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Cultural Leonesa to win39%fair 2.56
Draw34%fair 2.96
Ponferradina to win27%fair 3.68
Cultural Leonesa, draw no bet59%fair 1.70
Ponferradina, draw no bet41%fair 2.43
Double chance
Cultural Leonesa or draw73%fair 1.37
Ponferradina or draw61%fair 1.64
Cultural Leonesa or Ponferradina (no draw)66%fair 1.51
Goals
Over 0.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 1.5 goals51%fair 1.97
Over 2.5 goals24%fair 4.13
Over 3.5 goals9%fair 10.75
Over 4.5 goals3%fair 33.33
Under 1.5 goals49%fair 2.03
Under 2.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Under 3.5 goals91%fair 1.10
BTTS
Both teams to score32%fair 3.11
Not both teams to score68%fair 1.47
Halves
First-half goal54%fair 1.87
Over 1.5 first-half goals18%fair 5.59
Second-half goal61%fair 1.65
Team goals
Cultural Leonesa to score61%fair 1.63
Ponferradina to score53%fair 1.89
Cultural Leonesa clean sheet47%fair 2.12
Ponferradina clean sheet39%fair 2.58
Cultural Leonesa to win to nil36%fair 2.79
Ponferradina to win to nil25%fair 4.00
Odd or even
Odd number of goals48%fair 2.07
Even number of goals52%fair 1.93
Most likely scores
0-018.3%
1-017.4%
0-113.7%
1-113%
2-08.2%
2-16.2%
Half-time / full-time
Draw / Draw25.8%
Cultural Leonesa / Cultural Leonesa21.6%
Draw / Cultural Leonesa15.9%
Ponferradina / Ponferradina14.8%
Draw / Ponferradina11.8%
Questions about Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina
Cultural Leonesa or Ponferradina: which side does the model back?
The model gives Cultural Leonesa the best chance at 39%, with the draw at 34%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina?
0-0 is the most likely scoreline at 18.3%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 24%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Cultural Leonesa vs Ponferradina both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 32%. Cultural Leonesa find the net in 61% of simulated matches and Ponferradina in 53%.
When do Cultural Leonesa play Ponferradina?
Kick-off is 17:15 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.