Primera División RFEF - Group 1
PonferradinaHomeLDDDD
0:0Half-time 0:0
BarakaldoAwayDLWDD433225
Ponferradina winDrawBarakaldo win
PonferradinaHomeLDDDDBarakaldoAwayDLWDD- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.00 1.16 : 0.84
- Favourite
- 43% Ponferradina
- Over 2.5 goals
- 32% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 40% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.16 | 2.82 | 3.48 | 2.65 | 1.40 | 2.19 | 1.59 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Ponferradina to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Ponferradina price at 2.16, 1xBet lead the draw at 2.82 and 1xBet have Barakaldo longest at 3.48.
The best-price payout across the three results is 90.5%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.65 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.40 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.19 (1xBet) and no 1.59 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
74%
Our prediction
Ponferradina or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
68% chance1.40
BTTSNot both teams to score
60% chance1.59
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
59% chance1.68fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
16% chance6.37fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Ponferradina, full-time Ponferradina
25% chance4.00fair
First halfFirst-half goal
59% chance1.69fair
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo odds movement
Ponferradina win2.16-0.09
Draw2.82-0.18
Barakaldo win3.48-0.17
Over 2.5 goals2.65-0.11
Under 2.5 goals1.40-0.04
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo prediction
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo prediction, who wins and at what price
Ponferradina host Barakaldo on Saturday, 24 October 2026 in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1, and the model has Ponferradina at 43%, the draw at 32% and Barakaldo at 26%: that is the Ponferradina vs Barakaldo prediction in one line.
Ponferradina are expected to score 1.16 and Barakaldo 0.84, so the total line is 2.00 goals; over 2.5 lands at 32% and BTTS at 40%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo is ponferradina or draw, a 74% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.22. That price implies 82%, 8 points over the model figure.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
The draw is live at 32%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.
Over the last 5 matches Ponferradina stand at 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Barakaldo show 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats in 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Ponferradina vs Barakaldo
On the goal lines Ponferradina vs Barakaldo reads 59% for over 1.5, 32% for over 2.5 and 14% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 68%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 68%, best priced 1.40 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 40%. Ponferradina score in 69% of simulations against a 31% clean sheet for Barakaldo; Barakaldo score in 57% while Ponferradina shut them out 43% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo: 1-0 (15.7%), 0-0 (13.5%) and 1-1 (13.2%).
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Ponferradina, full-time Ponferradina leads at 25%. A goal before the break is rated 59%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo
The grid built from 1.16 and 0.84 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Ponferradina to win43%2.16
Draw32%2.82
Barakaldo to win26%3.48
Ponferradina, draw no bet62%fair 1.61
Barakaldo, draw no bet38%fair 2.65
Double chance
Ponferradina or draw74%1.22
Barakaldo or draw57%1.56
Ponferradina or Barakaldo (no draw)68%1.33
Goals
Over 0.5 goals87%fair 1.16
Over 1.5 goals59%fair 1.68
Over 2.5 goals32%2.65
Over 3.5 goals14%fair 6.99
Over 4.5 goals5%fair 18.87
Under 1.5 goals41%fair 2.46
Under 2.5 goals68%1.40
Under 3.5 goals86%fair 1.17
BTTS
Both teams to score40%2.19
Not both teams to score60%1.59
Halves
First-half goal59%fair 1.69
Over 1.5 first-half goals23%fair 4.39
Second-half goal67%fair 1.50
Team goals
Ponferradina to score69%fair 1.46
Barakaldo to score57%fair 1.76
Ponferradina clean sheet43%fair 2.31
Barakaldo clean sheet31%fair 3.19
Ponferradina to win to nil39%fair 2.55
Barakaldo to win to nil24%fair 4.22
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.04
Even number of goals51%fair 1.96
Most likely scores
1-015.7%
0-013.5%
1-113.2%
0-111.4%
2-09.1%
2-17.6%
Half-time / full-time
Ponferradina / Ponferradina25%
Draw / Draw21.5%
Draw / Ponferradina16.6%
Barakaldo / Barakaldo14.4%
Draw / Barakaldo11%
Questions about Ponferradina vs Barakaldo
Who will win Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
The model gives Ponferradina the best chance at 43%, with the draw at 32%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 15.7%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 32%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 40%. Ponferradina find the net in 69% of simulated matches and Barakaldo in 57%.
When is Ponferradina vs Barakaldo and where is the result shown?
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo starts at 16:45 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.