Copa del Rey
LlaneraHomeD
1:1Half-time 0:1Penalties 3:5
PonferradinaAwayLDDDD212356
Llanera winDrawPonferradina win
LlaneraHomeDPonferradinaAwayLDDDD- Kick-off Tue 27 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.92 1.05 : 1.87
- Favourite
- 56% Ponferradina
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Llanera vs Ponferradina odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 4.94 | 3.90 | 1.64 | 1.69 | 2.09 | 1.68 | 2.06 | Bet |
 22Bet | 4.99 | 3.74 | 1.66 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.95 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 4.80 | 3.55 | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.88 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 4.99 | 3.74 | 1.66 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.95 | Bet |
 Melbet | 4.99 | 3.74 | 1.66 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.95 | Bet |
 Stake | 4.60 | 3.70 | 1.66 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.84 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Ponferradina to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Llanera vs Ponferradina prediction: Llanera 4.99 (Melbet), draw 3.90 (1xBet), Ponferradina 1.68 (BC.Game).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 95.1%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.97 (Melbet) and under 2.5 2.09 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.80 (Melbet) and no 2.06 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
56%
Our prediction
Ponferradina to win
Double chancePonferradina or draw
79% chance1.15
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
56% chance1.97
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.80
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
79% chance1.27fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.43fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Ponferradina, full-time Ponferradina
36% chance2.79fair
Llanera vs Ponferradina odds movement
Llanera win4.99-0.01
Draw3.90-0.30
Ponferradina win1.68unchanged
Over 2.5 goals1.97unchanged
Under 2.5 goals2.09-0.06
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Llanera vs Ponferradina prediction
Our Llanera vs Ponferradina prediction and pick
Llanera vs Ponferradina prediction for the Copa del Rey on Tuesday, 27 October 2026: the model makes Ponferradina a narrow favourite at 56%, with the draw at 23% and Llanera at 21%.
Llanera are expected to score 1.05 and Ponferradina 1.87, so the total line is 2.92 goals; over 2.5 lands at 56% and BTTS at 54%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is ponferradina to win at 56%. The best price in our comparison is 1.68 at BC.Game, which implies 60%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Llanera vs Ponferradina.
Ponferradina or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 79% chance, priced 1.15.
Llanera vs Ponferradina goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Under 2.5 goals is rated 44% and under 3.5 67%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 79% and over 2.5 at 56%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 56%; Melbet pay 1.97.
Both teams to score is 54%: Llanera find the net in 65% of simulated matches and Ponferradina in 85%. Llanera keep a clean sheet 15% of the time and Ponferradina 35%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.6%, then 0-1 at 10.1% and 1-2 at 9.9%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Ponferradina, full-time Ponferradina leads at 36%. A goal before the break is rated 73%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Llanera vs Ponferradina
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Llanera vs Ponferradina, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Llanera to win21%4.99
Draw23%3.90
Ponferradina to win56%1.68
Llanera, draw no bet27%fair 3.70
Ponferradina, draw no bet73%fair 1.37
Double chance
Llanera or draw44%2.18
Ponferradina or draw79%1.15
Llanera or Ponferradina (no draw)77%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals79%fair 1.27
Over 2.5 goals56%1.97
Over 3.5 goals34%fair 2.99
Over 4.5 goals17%fair 5.85
Under 1.5 goals21%fair 4.74
Under 2.5 goals44%2.09
Under 3.5 goals67%fair 1.50
BTTS
Both teams to score54%1.80
Not both teams to score46%2.06
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.37
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.65
Second-half goal80%fair 1.25
Team goals
Llanera to score65%fair 1.54
Ponferradina to score85%fair 1.18
Llanera clean sheet15%fair 6.49
Ponferradina clean sheet35%fair 2.86
Llanera to win to nil14%fair 7.04
Ponferradina to win to nil32%fair 3.11
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.6%
0-110.1%
1-29.9%
0-29.4%
1-36.2%
0-35.9%
Half-time / full-time
Ponferradina / Ponferradina35.8%
Draw / Ponferradina17.7%
Draw / Draw13.1%
Llanera / Llanera11.7%
Draw / Llanera7.9%
Questions about Llanera vs Ponferradina
Llanera or Ponferradina: which side does the model back?
The model gives Ponferradina the best chance at 56%, with the draw at 23%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Llanera vs Ponferradina?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 56% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Llanera vs Ponferradina?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Llanera find the net in 65% of simulated matches and Ponferradina in 85%.
When do Llanera play Ponferradina?
Llanera vs Ponferradina starts at 19:00 UTC on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.