Primera División RFEF - Group 1
LugoHomeWWWLW
2:1Half-time 2:0
Mérida ADAwayWWWDL452728
Lugo winDrawMérida AD win
LugoHomeWWWLWMérida ADAwayWWWDL- Kick-off Sun 1 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.67 1.52 : 1.15
- Favourite
- 45% Lugo
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Lugo vs Mérida AD betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.12 | 3.20 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.71 | 2.00 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.31 | 3.37 | 2.94 | 2.01 | 1.80 | 1.82 | 1.93 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.24 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 1.92 | 1.80 | 1.69 | 1.97 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.31 | 3.37 | 2.94 | 2.01 | 1.80 | 1.82 | 1.93 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.24 | 2.99 | 3.08 | 2.01 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 2.01 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Lugo to win partner prices
Betwinner pay the best Lugo price at 2.31, Betwinner lead the draw at 3.37 and 1xBet have Mérida AD longest at 3.20.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 95.9%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.01 (Melbet) and under 2.5 1.80 (Melbet); both teams to score yes pays 1.82 (22Bet) and no 2.01 (Melbet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
73%
Our prediction
Lugo or Mérida AD (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
50% chance1.80
BTTSBoth teams to score
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
75% chance1.34fairWon
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.26fairLost
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Lugo, full-time Lugo
28% chance3.62fairWon
First halfFirst-half goal
70% chance1.43fairWon
Lugo vs Mérida AD odds movement
Lugo win2.31unchanged
Draw3.37-0.13
Mérida AD win3.20-0.05
Over 2.5 goals2.01unchanged
Under 2.5 goals1.80-0.07
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 23:58 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Lugo vs Mérida AD prediction
Our Lugo vs Mérida AD prediction and pick
The Lugo vs Mérida AD prediction leans to Lugo: 45% against 28% for Mérida AD, with 27% left for the draw, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, 1 November 2026.
Lugo are expected to score 1.52 and Mérida AD 1.15, so the total line is 2.67 goals; over 2.5 lands at 50% and BTTS at 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Lugo or Mérida AD (no draw) is the main selection, rated 73%. Melbet offer the top price at 1.30. That price implies 77%, 4 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Lugo vs Mérida AD.
Over the last 5 matches Lugo stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Mérida AD show 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats in 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Lugo vs Mérida AD
On the goal lines Lugo vs Mérida AD reads 75% for over 1.5, 50% for over 2.5 and 28% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 50%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 50%, best priced 1.80 at Melbet.
Both teams to score is 55%: Lugo find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Mérida AD in 68%. Lugo keep a clean sheet 32% of the time and Mérida AD 22%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Lugo vs Mérida AD: 1-1 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.1% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Lugo, full-time Lugo is the top combination at 28%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 70%.
Every market for Lugo vs Mérida AD
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Lugo vs Mérida AD, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Lugo to win45%2.31
Draw27%3.37
Mérida AD to win28%3.20
Lugo, draw no bet62%fair 1.62
Mérida AD, draw no bet38%fair 2.61
Double chance
Lugo or draw72%1.37
Mérida AD or draw55%1.58
Lugo or Mérida AD (no draw)73%1.30
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals75%fair 1.34
Over 2.5 goals50%2.01
Over 3.5 goals28%fair 3.58
Over 4.5 goals13%fair 7.52
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 3.94
Under 2.5 goals50%1.80
Under 3.5 goals72%fair 1.39
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.82
Not both teams to score45%2.01
Halves
First-half goal70%fair 1.43
Over 1.5 first-half goals34%fair 2.96
Second-half goal77%fair 1.30
Team goals
Lugo to score78%fair 1.28
Mérida AD to score68%fair 1.46
Lugo clean sheet32%fair 3.15
Mérida AD clean sheet22%fair 4.57
Lugo to win to nil29%fair 3.44
Mérida AD to win to nil20%fair 4.98
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.1%
1-010.5%
2-19.2%
2-08%
0-18%
1-27%
Half-time / full-time
Lugo / Lugo27.6%
Mérida AD / Mérida AD16.3%
Draw / Lugo15.7%
Draw / Draw15.4%
Draw / Mérida AD10.7%
Questions about Lugo vs Mérida AD
Who will win Lugo vs Mérida AD?
The model gives Lugo the best chance at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Lugo vs Mérida AD?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.1%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 50% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Lugo vs Mérida AD?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Lugo find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Mérida AD in 68%.
When is Lugo vs Mérida AD and where is the result shown?
Lugo vs Mérida AD starts at 17:45 UTC on Sunday, 1 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.