Copa del Rey
CastellonenseHomeL
1:2Half-time 0:0
AlmeriaAwayWWDWD152065
Castellonense winDrawAlmeria win
CastellonenseHomeLAlmeriaAwayWWDWD- Kick-off Tue 27 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.85 0.84 : 2.01
- Favourite
- 65% Almeria
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 50% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Best odds for Castellonense vs Almeria
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 7.41 | 4.33 | 1.42 | 1.75 | 2.01 | 1.92 | 1.79 | Bet |
 22Bet | 5.96 | 4.07 | 1.53 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 6.20 | 4.10 | 1.47 | 1.76 | 1.97 | 1.85 | 1.81 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 5.96 | 4.07 | 1.53 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | Bet |
 Melbet | 5.96 | 4.07 | 1.53 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | Bet |
 Stake | 5.60 | 4.10 | 1.50 | 1.68 | 2.03 | 1.80 | 1.84 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Almeria to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Castellonense price at 7.41, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.33 and Melbet have Almeria longest at 1.53.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 97.9%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.81 (Melbet) and under 2.5 2.03 (Stake); both teams to score yes pays 1.92 (1xBet) and no 1.95 (Melbet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
65%
Our prediction
Almeria to win
Double chanceAlmeria or draw
85% chance1.11
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
54% chance1.81
BTTSBoth teams to score
50% chance1.92
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
78% chance1.29fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-2
12% chance8.55fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Almeria, full-time Almeria
42% chance2.38fair
Castellonense vs Almeria odds movement
Castellonense win7.41unchanged
Draw4.33-0.27
Almeria win1.53unchanged
Over 2.5 goals1.81unchanged
Under 2.5 goals2.03-0.05
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Castellonense vs Almeria prediction
Castellonense vs Almeria prediction and best bet
The Castellonense vs Almeria prediction leans to Almeria: 65% against 15% for Castellonense, with 20% left for the draw, in the Copa del Rey on Tuesday, 27 October 2026.
Expected goals are 0.84 for Castellonense and 2.01 for Almeria, a total of 2.85, which puts over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 50%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Castellonense vs Almeria is almeria to win, a 65% chance. At 1.53 with Melbet the market prices it at 66%, against 65% from the model.
Almeria or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 85% chance, priced 1.11.
The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Castellonense vs Almeria goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
On the goal lines Castellonense vs Almeria reads 78% for over 1.5, 54% for over 2.5 and 32% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 46%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 54%; Melbet pay 1.81.
BTTS yes stands at 50%. Castellonense score in 57% of simulations against a 43% clean sheet for Almeria; Almeria score in 87% while Castellonense shut them out 13% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 11.7%, followed by 0-1 (11.6%) and 1-2 (9.8%).
With the top scoreline at 11.7%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Castellonense vs Almeria; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Almeria, full-time Almeria is the top combination at 42%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 72%.
All markets, Castellonense vs Almeria
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Castellonense vs Almeria, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Castellonense to win15%7.41
Draw20%4.33
Almeria to win65%1.53
Castellonense, draw no bet18%fair 5.43
Almeria, draw no bet82%fair 1.23
Double chance
Castellonense or draw35%2.73
Almeria or draw85%1.11
Castellonense or Almeria (no draw)80%1.21
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals78%fair 1.29
Over 2.5 goals54%1.81
Over 3.5 goals32%fair 3.13
Over 4.5 goals16%fair 6.25
Under 1.5 goals22%fair 4.48
Under 2.5 goals46%2.03
Under 3.5 goals68%fair 1.47
BTTS
Both teams to score50%1.92
Not both teams to score50%1.95
Halves
First-half goal72%fair 1.38
Over 1.5 first-half goals37%fair 2.72
Second-half goal79%fair 1.26
Team goals
Castellonense to score57%fair 1.76
Almeria to score87%fair 1.15
Castellonense clean sheet13%fair 7.46
Almeria clean sheet43%fair 2.31
Castellonense to win to nil12%fair 8.13
Almeria to win to nil40%fair 2.52
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
0-211.7%
0-111.6%
1-29.8%
1-19.8%
0-37.8%
1-36.6%
Half-time / full-time
Almeria / Almeria42.1%
Draw / Almeria19.7%
Draw / Draw12.5%
Castellonense / Castellonense8%
Draw / Castellonense5.9%
Questions about Castellonense vs Almeria
Who is favourite in Castellonense vs Almeria?
The model gives Almeria the best chance at 65%, with the draw at 20%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Castellonense vs Almeria correct score: what does the model say?
0-2 is the most likely scoreline at 11.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 54% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Castellonense vs Almeria?
The BTTS yes line is rated 50%. Castellonense find the net in 57% of simulated matches and Almeria in 87%.
When do Castellonense play Almeria?
Castellonense vs Almeria starts at 18:45 UTC on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.