Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction, who wins and at what price

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction for the Liga Portugal on Friday, 30 October 2026: the model makes Sporting CP the clear favourite at 76%, with the draw at 16% and Casa Pia at 9%.

Expected goals are 0.74 for Casa Pia and 2.44 for Sporting CP, a total of 3.18, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 50%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP is sporting CP to win, a 76% chance. 22Bet offer the top price at 1.34. That price implies 75%, 1 points under the model figure.

Sporting CP or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 91% chance, priced 1.08.

The draw sits at only 16%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Form check: Casa Pia have won 3 of their last 5 with 5 scored and 4 conceded, Sporting CP 3 of 5 scoring 10 and conceding 6.

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 83%, over 2.5 at 60%, over 3.5 at 39%; under 2.5 is 40% and under 3.5 is 61%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 60%; 1xBet pay 1.55.

Both teams to score is 50%: Casa Pia find the net in 52% of simulated matches and Sporting CP in 91%. Casa Pia keep a clean sheet 9% of the time and Sporting CP 48%.

The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 12.4%, followed by 0-1 (10.1%) and 0-3 (10.1%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.4% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Sporting CP, full-time Sporting CP is the top combination at 52%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.