Fazendense vs Estrela prediction

Fazendense vs Estrela prediction and best bet

Estrela are a strong favourite in the Fazendense vs Estrela prediction, rated 89% to win this Taça de Portugal match on Saturday, 17 October 2026. Fazendense sit at 3% and the draw at 8%.

The goal expectancy is 3.82 in total, split 0.48 to Fazendense and 3.34 to Estrela. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 71% and both teams to score 37%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is estrela to win at 89%. The best price in our comparison is 1.10 at 1xBet, which implies 91%, so the model sits 2 points below the market.

Estrela or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 97% chance, priced -.

With the draw down at 8%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Fazendense vs Estrela over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

On the goal lines Fazendense vs Estrela reads 89% for over 1.5, 71% for over 2.5 and 53% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 29%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 71%, best priced 1.33 at 1xBet.

Both teams to score is 37%: Fazendense find the net in 38% of simulated matches and Estrela in 97%. Fazendense keep a clean sheet 4% of the time and Estrela 62%.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.

The most likely scoreline is 0-3 at 13.6%, followed by 0-2 (12.2%) and 0-4 (11.4%).

With the top scoreline at 13.6%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Fazendense vs Estrela; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Estrela, full-time Estrela leads at 69%. A goal before the break is rated 82%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.