Serie A
Round 9 Wednesday, 28 October 2026
FT
MonzaHomeLWLLL
1:4Half-time 1:1
NapoliAwayLWDWL232453
Monza winDrawNapoli win
Serie A
Round 9 Wednesday, 28 October 2026
FT
MonzaHomeLWLLLNapoliAwayLWDWL- Kick-off Wed 28 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.08 1.19 : 1.89
- Favourite
- 53% Napoli
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 59% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Best odds for Monza vs Napoli
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 22Bet | 5.75 | 4.30 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 2.53 | 1.65 | 2.24 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.55 | 1.58 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 2.22 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 5.83 | 4.36 | 1.56 | 1.52 | 2.53 | 1.65 | 2.24 | Bet |
 Melbet | 5.83 | 4.36 | 1.56 | 1.52 | 2.53 | 1.65 | 2.24 | Bet |
 Stake | 5.60 | 4.50 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.66 | 2.13 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Napoli to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Monza vs Napoli are 5.83 for Monza at Melbet, 4.50 for the draw at Stake and 1.56 for Napoli at Melbet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96.6%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.58 (BC.Game) and under 2.5 2.53 (Melbet); both teams to score yes pays 1.66 (Stake) and no 2.24 (Melbet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
53%
Our prediction
Napoli to win
Double chanceNapoli or draw
77% chance1.15
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
59% chance1.58
BTTSBoth teams to score
59% chance1.66
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
81% chance1.23fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance9.71fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Napoli, full-time Napoli
34% chance2.95fair
Monza vs Napoli odds movement
Monza win5.83unchanged
Draw4.50unchanged
Napoli win1.56-0.15
Over 2.5 goals1.58-0.13
Under 2.5 goals2.53unchanged
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Monza vs Napoli prediction
Monza vs Napoli prediction and best bet
Monza vs Napoli prediction for the Serie A on Wednesday, 28 October 2026: the model makes Napoli a narrow favourite at 53%, with the draw at 24% and Monza at 23%.
Monza are expected to score 1.19 and Napoli 1.89, so the total line is 3.08 goals; over 2.5 lands at 59% and BTTS at 59%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Napoli to win is the main selection, rated 53%. The best price in our comparison is 1.56 at Melbet, which implies 64%, so the model sits 11 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Monza vs Napoli.
Napoli or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 77% chance, priced 1.15.
Form check: Monza have won 1 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 12 conceded, Napoli 2 of 5 scoring 11 and conceding 10.
Monza vs Napoli goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Under 2.5 goals is rated 41% and under 3.5 63%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 81% and over 2.5 at 59%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 59%; BC.Game pay 1.58.
Both teams to score is 59%: Monza find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Napoli in 85%. Monza keep a clean sheet 15% of the time and Napoli 30%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.3%, then 1-2 at 9.8% and 0-1 at 8.7%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.3% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Napoli, full-time Napoli leads at 34%. A goal before the break is rated 75%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Monza vs Napoli
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 23% / 24% / 53% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Monza to win23%5.83
Draw24%4.50
Napoli to win53%1.56
Monza, draw no bet30%fair 3.29
Napoli, draw no bet70%fair 1.44
Double chance
Monza or draw47%2.50
Napoli or draw77%1.15
Monza or Napoli (no draw)76%1.23
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals81%fair 1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.58
Over 3.5 goals37%fair 2.70
Over 4.5 goals20%fair 5.05
Under 1.5 goals19%fair 5.32
Under 2.5 goals41%2.53
Under 3.5 goals63%fair 1.59
BTTS
Both teams to score59%1.66
Not both teams to score41%2.24
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.33
Over 1.5 first-half goals40%fair 2.48
Second-half goal82%fair 1.23
Team goals
Monza to score70%fair 1.44
Napoli to score85%fair 1.18
Monza clean sheet15%fair 6.62
Napoli clean sheet30%fair 3.29
Monza to win to nil14%fair 7.19
Napoli to win to nil28%fair 3.57
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.3%
1-29.8%
0-18.7%
0-28.2%
1-36.2%
2-16.2%
Half-time / full-time
Napoli / Napoli33.9%
Draw / Napoli16.7%
Monza / Monza13.5%
Draw / Draw12.5%
Draw / Monza8.6%
Questions about Monza vs Napoli
Monza or Napoli: which side does the model back?
The model gives Napoli the best chance at 53%, with the draw at 24%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Monza vs Napoli correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.3%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 59% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Monza vs Napoli?
The BTTS yes line is rated 59%. Monza find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Napoli in 85%.
When is Monza vs Napoli and where is the result shown?
Monza vs Napoli starts at 19:45 UTC on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.