Serie A
Round 7 Monday, 19 October 2026
FT
MonzaHomeLWLLL
4:0Half-time 1:0
CagliariAwayDLLLL383032
Monza winDrawCagliari win
Serie A
Round 7 Monday, 19 October 2026
FT
MonzaHomeLWLLLCagliariAwayDLLLL- Kick-off Mon 19 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.49 1.31 : 1.18
- Favourite
- 38% Monza
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 53% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Monza vs Cagliari odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.16 | 2.77 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 2.12 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Monza to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Monza vs Cagliari prediction: Monza 2.74 (1xBet), draw 3.16 (1xBet), Cagliari 2.77 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 95.9%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.18 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.72 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.72 (1xBet) and no 2.12 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
70%
Our prediction
Monza or Cagliari (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
55% chance1.72
BTTSBoth teams to score
53% chance1.72
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
71% chance1.41fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.81fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Monza, full-time Monza
23% chance4.31fair
First halfFirst-half goal
67% chance1.48fair
Monza vs Cagliari odds movement
Monza win2.74unchanged
Draw3.16-0.08
Cagliari win2.77-0.29
Over 2.5 goals2.18unchanged
Under 2.5 goals1.72-0.09
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Monza vs Cagliari prediction
Monza vs Cagliari prediction, who wins and at what price
The Monza vs Cagliari prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Serie A on Monday, 19 October 2026 gives Monza a 38% chance, Cagliari 32% and the draw 30%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.
Expected goals are 1.31 for Monza and 1.18 for Cagliari, a total of 2.49, which puts over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 53%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Monza vs Cagliari is monza or Cagliari (no draw), a 70% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.38. That price implies 72%, 2 points over the model figure.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Monza stand at 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Cagliari show 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats in 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Monza vs Cagliari
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 71%, over 2.5 at 45%, over 3.5 at 24%; under 2.5 is 55% and under 3.5 is 76%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; 1xBet pay 1.72.
The chance of both teams scoring is 53%, built from Monza scoring in 73% of runs and Cagliari in 69%; clean sheets come at 31% for Monza and 27% for Cagliari.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%, followed by 1-0 (10.9%) and 0-1 (9.8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.8% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Monza, full-time Monza leads at 23%. A goal before the break is rated 67%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Monza vs Cagliari
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Monza vs Cagliari, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Monza to win38%2.74
Draw30%3.16
Cagliari to win32%2.77
Monza, draw no bet54%fair 1.84
Cagliari, draw no bet46%fair 2.19
Double chance
Monza or draw68%1.47
Cagliari or draw62%1.48
Monza or Cagliari (no draw)70%1.38
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals71%fair 1.41
Over 2.5 goals45%2.18
Over 3.5 goals24%fair 4.17
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 9.35
Under 1.5 goals29%fair 3.46
Under 2.5 goals55%1.72
Under 3.5 goals76%fair 1.32
BTTS
Both teams to score53%1.72
Not both teams to score47%2.12
Halves
First-half goal67%fair 1.48
Over 1.5 first-half goals31%fair 3.25
Second-half goal75%fair 1.34
Team goals
Monza to score73%fair 1.37
Cagliari to score69%fair 1.44
Monza clean sheet31%fair 3.26
Cagliari clean sheet27%fair 3.70
Monza to win to nil28%fair 3.53
Cagliari to win to nil25%fair 4.03
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.8%
1-010.9%
0-19.8%
2-18.4%
0-08.3%
1-27.6%
Half-time / full-time
Monza / Monza23.2%
Cagliari / Cagliari19.1%
Draw / Draw16.9%
Draw / Monza14.3%
Draw / Cagliari12.4%
Questions about Monza vs Cagliari
Monza or Cagliari: which side does the model back?
The model gives Monza the best chance at 38%, with the draw at 30%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Monza vs Cagliari?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 45%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Monza vs Cagliari?
The BTTS yes line is rated 53%. Monza find the net in 73% of simulated matches and Cagliari in 69%.
When do Monza play Cagliari?
Monza vs Cagliari starts at 16:30 UTC on Monday, 19 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.