Champions League
Matchday 3 Wednesday, 21 October 2026
FT
Real MadridHomeWWWWW
4:1Half-time 1:0
RB LeipzigAwayLLWWW81127
Real Madrid winDrawRB Leipzig win
Champions League
Matchday 3 Wednesday, 21 October 2026
FT
Real MadridHomeWWWWWRB LeipzigAwayLLWWW- Kick-off Wed 21 Oct
- Expected goals
- 5.36 4.08 : 1.28
- Favourite
- 81% Real Madrid
- Over 2.5 goals
- 86% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 68% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.27 | 7.50 | 10.60 | 1.13 | 4.60 | 1.41 | 2.73 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Real Madrid to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Real Madrid price at 1.27, 1xBet lead the draw at 7.50 and 1xBet have RB Leipzig longest at 10.60.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 98.5%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.13 (1xBet) and under 2.5 4.60 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.41 (1xBet) and no 2.73 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
81%
Our prediction
Real Madrid to win
Double chanceReal Madrid or draw
93% chance1.09
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
86% chance1.13
BTTSBoth teams to score
68% chance1.41
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
96% chance1.04fair
ScorelineCorrect score 4-1
7% chance14.49fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Real Madrid, full-time Real Madrid
64% chance1.57fair
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction and best bet
Real Madrid are a strong favourite in the Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction, rated 81% to win this Champions League match on Wednesday, 21 October 2026. RB Leipzig sit at 7% and the draw at 12%.
The goal expectancy is 5.36 in total, split 4.08 to Real Madrid and 1.28 to RB Leipzig. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 86% and both teams to score 68%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Real Madrid to win is the main selection, rated 81%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.27. That price implies 79%, 2 points under the model figure.
For a safer line, real Madrid or draw covers 93% of outcomes at 1.09.
The draw sits at only 12%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Over the last 5 matches Real Madrid stand at 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; RB Leipzig show 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Goals forecast for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 96%, over 2.5 at 86%, over 3.5 at 77%; under 2.5 is 15% and under 3.5 is 23%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 86%; 1xBet pay 1.13.
BTTS yes stands at 68%. Real Madrid score in 98% of simulations against a 2% clean sheet for RB Leipzig; RB Leipzig score in 72% while Real Madrid shut them out 28% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.
Correct score: 4-1 leads at 6.9%, then 3-1 at 6.8% and 5-1 at 5.7%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 6.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Real Madrid, full-time Real Madrid leads at 64%. A goal before the break is rated 91%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 81% / 12% / 7% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Real Madrid to win81%1.27
Draw12%7.50
RB Leipzig to win7%10.60
Real Madrid, draw no bet92%fair 1.09
RB Leipzig, draw no bet8%fair 11.90
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw93%1.09
RB Leipzig or draw19%4.39
Real Madrid or RB Leipzig (no draw)88%1.13
Goals
Over 0.5 goals99%fair 1.01
Over 1.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 2.5 goals86%1.13
Over 3.5 goals77%fair 1.29
Over 4.5 goals61%fair 1.64
Under 1.5 goals4%fair 25.64
Under 2.5 goals15%4.60
Under 3.5 goals23%fair 4.41
BTTS
Both teams to score68%1.41
Not both teams to score32%2.73
Halves
First-half goal91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 first-half goals69%fair 1.44
Second-half goal95%fair 1.05
Team goals
Real Madrid to score98%fair 1.02
RB Leipzig to score72%fair 1.39
Real Madrid clean sheet28%fair 3.60
RB Leipzig clean sheet2%fair 58.82
Real Madrid to win to nil26%fair 3.91
RB Leipzig to win to nil2%fair 62.50
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
4-16.9%
3-16.8%
5-15.7%
4-05.4%
3-05.3%
2-15%
Half-time / full-time
Real Madrid / Real Madrid63.6%
Draw / Real Madrid15.2%
RB Leipzig / Real Madrid4.6%
RB Leipzig / RB Leipzig3.7%
Draw / Draw3.7%
Questions about Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Who is favourite in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives Real Madrid the best chance at 81%, with the draw at 12%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig correct score: what does the model say?
4-1 is the most likely scoreline at 6.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 86%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The BTTS yes line is rated 68%. Real Madrid find the net in 98% of simulated matches and RB Leipzig in 72%.
When do Real Madrid play RB Leipzig?
Kick-off is 19:00 UTC on Wednesday, 21 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.