Europa League
Matchday 4 Thursday, 5 November 2026
Kick-off
Bayer LeverkusenHomeWWLWL
Thu 5 Nov
MarseilleAwayLWLWW691813
Bayer Leverkusen winDrawMarseille win
Europa League
Matchday 4 Thursday, 5 November 2026
Kick-off
Bayer LeverkusenHomeWWLWLMarseilleAwayLWLWW- Kick-off Thu 5 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.44 2.44 : 1.00
- Favourite
- 69% Bayer Leverkusen
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 58% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.45 | 5.12 | 6.84 | 1.46 | 2.66 | 1.62 | 2.19 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.70 | 1.46 | 2.66 | 1.62 | 2.19 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.41 | 4.90 | 6.60 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.60 | 2.14 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.45 | 5.12 | 6.84 | 1.46 | 2.66 | 1.62 | 2.19 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.45 | 5.12 | 6.84 | 1.46 | 2.66 | 1.62 | 2.19 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.38 | 5.20 | 6.60 | - | - | 1.63 | 2.09 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Bayer Leverkusen to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 1.45 (Melbet), draw 5.20 (Stake), Marseille 6.84 (Melbet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 97.3%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.46 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.70 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.63 (Stake) and no 2.19 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
69%
Our prediction
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Double chanceBayer Leverkusen or draw
86% chance1.13
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
66% chance1.46
BTTSBoth teams to score
58% chance1.63
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
86% chance1.17fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-0
10% chance10.53fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Bayer Leverkusen, full-time Bayer Leverkusen
47% chance2.14fair
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction and best bet
The Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction leans to Bayer Leverkusen: 69% against 14% for Marseille, with 18% left for the draw, in the Europa League on Thursday, 5 November 2026.
The goal expectancy is 3.44 in total, split 2.44 to Bayer Leverkusen and 1.00 to Marseille. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 66% and both teams to score 58%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille is bayer Leverkusen to win, a 69% chance. At 1.45 with Melbet the market prices it at 69%, against 69% from the model.
For a safer line, bayer Leverkusen or draw covers 86% of outcomes at 1.13.
The draw sits at only 18%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Form check: Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 with 11 scored and 10 conceded, Marseille 3 of 5 scoring 11 and conceding 7.
Goals forecast for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 34% and under 3.5 55%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 86% and over 2.5 at 66%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 66%; 1xBet pay 1.46.
The chance of both teams scoring is 58%, built from Bayer Leverkusen scoring in 91% of runs and Marseille in 63%; clean sheets come at 37% for Bayer Leverkusen and 9% for Marseille.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 58%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: 2-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (7.8%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Bayer Leverkusen, full-time Bayer Leverkusen is the top combination at 47%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 79%.
All markets, Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win69%1.45
Draw18%5.20
Marseille to win14%6.84
Bayer Leverkusen, draw no bet83%fair 1.20
Marseille, draw no bet17%fair 6.02
Double chance
Bayer Leverkusen or draw86%1.13
Marseille or draw31%2.93
Bayer Leverkusen or Marseille (no draw)83%1.20
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals86%fair 1.17
Over 2.5 goals66%1.46
Over 3.5 goals45%fair 2.22
Over 4.5 goals26%fair 3.80
Under 1.5 goals14%fair 6.99
Under 2.5 goals34%2.70
Under 3.5 goals55%fair 1.82
BTTS
Both teams to score58%1.63
Not both teams to score42%2.19
Halves
First-half goal79%fair 1.27
Over 1.5 first-half goals46%fair 2.18
Second-half goal85%fair 1.18
Team goals
Bayer Leverkusen to score91%fair 1.10
Marseille to score63%fair 1.58
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet37%fair 2.72
Marseille clean sheet9%fair 11.49
Bayer Leverkusen to win to nil34%fair 2.96
Marseille to win to nil8%fair 12.50
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-09.5%
2-19.5%
1-07.8%
1-17.8%
3-07.8%
3-17.8%
Half-time / full-time
Bayer Leverkusen / Bayer Leverkusen46.7%
Draw / Bayer Leverkusen18.7%
Draw / Draw9.4%
Marseille / Marseille7.5%
Draw / Marseille5%
Questions about Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
Who is favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the best chance at 69%, with the draw at 18%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille correct score: what does the model say?
2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 9.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 66% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
The BTTS yes line is rated 58%. Bayer Leverkusen find the net in 91% of simulated matches and Marseille in 63%.
When do Bayer Leverkusen play Marseille?
Kick-off is 20:00 UTC on Thursday, 5 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.