Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction

Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction, who wins and at what price

Liverpool host Chelsea on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 in the League Cup, and the model has Liverpool at 42%, the draw at 25% and Chelsea at 33%: that is the Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction in one line.

Expected goals are 1.73 for Liverpool and 1.52 for Chelsea, a total of 3.25, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 65%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Liverpool or Chelsea (no draw) is the main selection, rated 75%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.31. That price implies 76%, 2 points over the model figure.

Over the last 5 matches Liverpool stand at 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Chelsea show 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats in 5.

Goals forecast for Liverpool vs Chelsea with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

On the goal lines Liverpool vs Chelsea reads 84% for over 1.5, 63% for over 2.5 and 41% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 37%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 63%; Melbet pay 1.67.

Both teams to score is 65%: Liverpool find the net in 82% of simulated matches and Chelsea in 78%. Liverpool keep a clean sheet 22% of the time and Chelsea 18%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 65%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.2%, then 2-1 at 8.8% and 1-2 at 7.7%.

With the top scoreline at 10.2%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Liverpool vs Chelsea; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Liverpool, full-time Liverpool is the top combination at 26%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 77%.