Champions League
Matchday 3 Tuesday, 20 October 2026
FT
LiverpoolHomeWWWDL
4:3Half-time 2:2
VillarrealAwayDLWWL632116
Liverpool winDrawVillarreal win
Champions League
Matchday 3 Tuesday, 20 October 2026
FT
LiverpoolHomeWWWDLVillarrealAwayDLWWL- Kick-off Tue 20 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.38 2.27 : 1.11
- Favourite
- 63% Liverpool
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 62% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Liverpool vs Villarreal odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.68 | 5.99 | 1.45 | 2.59 | 1.55 | 2.32 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Liverpool to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction: Liverpool 1.58 (1xBet), draw 4.68 (1xBet), Villarreal 5.99 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 98.7%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.45 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.59 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.55 (1xBet) and no 2.32 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
63%
Our prediction
Liverpool to win
Double chanceLiverpool or draw
84% chance1.18
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
65% chance1.45
BTTSBoth teams to score
62% chance1.55
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
85% chance1.18fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
10% chance10.31fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Liverpool, full-time Liverpool
42% chance2.39fair
Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction
Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction and best bet
Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction for the Champions League on Tuesday, 20 October 2026: the model makes Liverpool the clear favourite at 63%, with the draw at 21% and Villarreal at 16%.
Expected goals are 2.27 for Liverpool and 1.11 for Villarreal, a total of 3.38, which puts over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 62%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Liverpool vs Villarreal is liverpool to win, a 63% chance. At 1.58 with 1xBet the market prices it at 63%, against 63% from the model.
Liverpool or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 84% chance, priced 1.18.
The draw sits at only 21%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Form check: Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 6 conceded, Villarreal 2 of 5 scoring 10 and conceding 6.
Liverpool vs Villarreal over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Under 2.5 goals is rated 36% and under 3.5 56%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 85% and over 2.5 at 65%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 65%; 1xBet pay 1.45.
The chance of both teams scoring is 62%, built from Liverpool scoring in 90% of runs and Villarreal in 67%; clean sheets come at 33% for Liverpool and 10% for Villarreal.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 62%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Liverpool vs Villarreal: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%) and 1-1 (8.6%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Liverpool, full-time Liverpool is the top combination at 42%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 78%.
Every market for Liverpool vs Villarreal
The grid built from 2.27 and 1.11 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Liverpool to win63%1.58
Draw21%4.68
Villarreal to win16%5.99
Liverpool, draw no bet80%fair 1.26
Villarreal, draw no bet21%fair 4.88
Double chance
Liverpool or draw84%1.18
Villarreal or draw37%2.63
Liverpool or Villarreal (no draw)79%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 2.5 goals65%1.45
Over 3.5 goals44%fair 2.29
Over 4.5 goals25%fair 3.97
Under 1.5 goals15%fair 6.71
Under 2.5 goals36%2.59
Under 3.5 goals56%fair 1.78
BTTS
Both teams to score62%1.55
Not both teams to score38%2.32
Halves
First-half goal78%fair 1.28
Over 1.5 first-half goals45%fair 2.23
Second-half goal84%fair 1.18
Team goals
Liverpool to score90%fair 1.11
Villarreal to score67%fair 1.49
Liverpool clean sheet33%fair 3.03
Villarreal clean sheet10%fair 9.71
Liverpool to win to nil30%fair 3.30
Villarreal to win to nil10%fair 10.53
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.7%
2-08.8%
1-18.6%
1-07.7%
3-17.4%
3-06.6%
Half-time / full-time
Liverpool / Liverpool41.9%
Draw / Liverpool17.9%
Draw / Draw10.3%
Villarreal / Villarreal9.7%
Draw / Villarreal6.3%
Questions about Liverpool vs Villarreal
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The model gives Liverpool the best chance at 63%, with the draw at 21%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Liverpool vs Villarreal correct score: what does the model say?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 65% backs the same picture with less variance.
Liverpool vs Villarreal both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 62%. Liverpool find the net in 90% of simulated matches and Villarreal in 67%.
When is Liverpool vs Villarreal and where is the result shown?
Liverpool vs Villarreal starts at 19:00 UTC on Tuesday, 20 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.