Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction, who wins and at what price

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction for the League Cup on Wednesday, 28 October 2026: the model calls it close, Bournemouth 41%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 33%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.

The goal expectancy is 3.16 in total, split 1.67 to Bournemouth and 1.49 to Aston Villa. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 61% and both teams to score 63%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is bournemouth or Aston Villa (no draw), a 74% chance. At 1.31 with 1xBet the market prices it at 76%, against 74% from the model.

Form check: Bournemouth have won 5 of their last 5 with 13 scored and 0 conceded, Aston Villa 3 of 5 scoring 7 and conceding 6.

Goals forecast for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 61%, over 3.5 at 39%; under 2.5 is 39% and under 3.5 is 61%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 61%, best priced 1.67 at Betwinner.

Both teams to score is 63%: Bournemouth find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Aston Villa in 78%. Bournemouth keep a clean sheet 23% of the time and Aston Villa 19%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.6%, then 2-1 at 8.8% and 1-2 at 7.9%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Bournemouth, full-time Bournemouth leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 76%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.