Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction

Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction, who wins and at what price

The Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Premier League on Sunday, 1 November 2026 gives Liverpool a 35% chance, Arsenal 37% and the draw 28%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.

Expected goals are 1.35 for Liverpool and 1.40 for Arsenal, a total of 2.75, which puts over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 58%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

The pick for Liverpool vs Arsenal is liverpool or Arsenal (no draw), a 72% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.37 at 1xBet, which implies 73%, so the model sits 1 points below the market.

Liverpool average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 5, Arsenal 1.4 and 0.6 across 5.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Liverpool vs Arsenal

Under 2.5 goals is rated 49% and under 3.5 70%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 76% and over 2.5 at 51%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 51%, best priced 1.90 at 1xBet.

BTTS yes stands at 58%. Liverpool score in 74% of simulations against a 26% clean sheet for Arsenal; Arsenal score in 75% while Liverpool shut them out 25% of the time.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%, followed by 0-1 (8.9%) and 1-0 (8.6%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Arsenal, full-time Arsenal is the top combination at 23%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.