Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction

Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction, who wins and at what price

Nothing separates the sides in the Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction for Saturday, 17 October 2026: 40% home, 26% draw and 34% away in the Premier League. A match this tight rewards the double chance and the goal markets more than a straight pick.

The goal expectancy is 3.20 in total, split 1.68 to Newcastle and 1.52 to Aston Villa. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 62% and both teams to score 65%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

The pick for Newcastle vs Aston Villa is newcastle or Aston Villa (no draw), a 74% chance. At 1.33 with 1xBet the market prices it at 75%, against 74% from the model.

Form check: Newcastle have won 2 of their last 5 with 6 scored and 9 conceded, Aston Villa 3 of 5 scoring 7 and conceding 6.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

Under 2.5 goals is rated 38% and under 3.5 60%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 83% and over 2.5 at 62%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 62%, best priced 1.58 at 1xBet.

Both teams to score is 65%: Newcastle find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Aston Villa in 78%. Newcastle keep a clean sheet 22% of the time and Aston Villa 19%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 65%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Newcastle vs Aston Villa: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.7%) and 1-2 (7.9%).

With the top scoreline at 10.4%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Newcastle vs Aston Villa; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Newcastle, full-time Newcastle is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.