Millwall vs Derby prediction

Our Millwall vs Derby prediction and pick

Millwall vs Derby prediction for the Championship on Saturday, 31 October 2026: the model makes Millwall a narrow favourite at 59%, with the draw at 23% and Derby at 18%.

The goal expectancy is 2.82 in total, split 1.87 to Millwall and 0.95 to Derby. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 53% and both teams to score 53%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Millwall to win is the main selection, rated 59%. The best price in our comparison is 1.64 at 1xBet, which implies 61%, so the model sits 2 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Millwall vs Derby.

Millwall or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 82% chance, priced 1.16.

Millwall average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 5, Derby 0.8 and 2.2 across 5.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Millwall vs Derby

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 77%, over 2.5 at 53%, over 3.5 at 31%; under 2.5 is 47% and under 3.5 is 69%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 53%; Melbet pay 1.84.

The chance of both teams scoring is 53%, built from Millwall scoring in 85% of runs and Derby in 61%; clean sheets come at 39% for Millwall and 15% for Derby.

The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.1%, followed by 1-1 (10.6%) and 2-0 (10.4%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.1% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Millwall, full-time Millwall leads at 38%. A goal before the break is rated 72%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.