Championship
Round 12 Saturday, 24 October 2026
FT
Sheffield UtdHomeWLWDW
1:1Half-time 0:1
DerbyAwayDLLDL552421
Sheffield Utd winDrawDerby win
Championship
Round 12 Saturday, 24 October 2026
FT
Sheffield UtdHomeWLWDWDerbyAwayDLLDL- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.85 1.80 : 1.05
- Favourite
- 55% Sheffield Utd
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Sheffield Utd vs Derby
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.82 | 4.03 | 1.74 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 2.08 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Sheffield Utd to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Sheffield Utd vs Derby are 1.79 for Sheffield Utd at 1xBet, 3.82 for the draw at 1xBet and 4.03 for Derby at 1xBet.
The best-price payout across the three results is 93.6%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.74 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.02 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.67 (1xBet) and no 2.08 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
55%
Our prediction
Sheffield Utd to win
Double chanceSheffield Utd or draw
78% chance1.22
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
54% chance1.74
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.67
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
78% chance1.29fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.17fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Sheffield Utd, full-time Sheffield Utd
35% chance2.90fair
Sheffield Utd vs Derby odds movement
Sheffield Utd win1.79-0.04
Draw3.82-0.16
Derby win4.03-0.57
Over 2.5 goals1.74-0.06
Under 2.5 goals2.02-0.11
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby prediction
Sheffield Utd vs Derby prediction, who wins and at what price
Sheffield Utd are a narrow favourite in the Sheffield Utd vs Derby prediction, rated 55% to win this Championship match on Saturday, 24 October 2026. Derby sit at 22% and the draw at 24%.
The goal expectancy is 2.85 in total, split 1.80 to Sheffield Utd and 1.05 to Derby. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 54% and both teams to score 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Sheffield Utd vs Derby is sheffield Utd to win, a 55% chance. At 1.79 with 1xBet the market prices it at 56%, against 55% from the model.
For a safer line, sheffield Utd or draw covers 78% of outcomes at 1.22.
Over the last 5 matches Sheffield Utd stand at 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Derby show 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Under 2.5 goals is rated 46% and under 3.5 68%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 78% and over 2.5 at 54%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 54%; 1xBet pay 1.74.
BTTS yes stands at 55%. Sheffield Utd score in 84% of simulations against a 17% clean sheet for Derby; Derby score in 65% while Sheffield Utd shut them out 35% of the time.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.9%, then 1-0 at 10.4% and 2-1 at 9.8%.
With the top scoreline at 10.9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Sheffield Utd vs Derby; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Sheffield Utd, full-time Sheffield Utd is the top combination at 35%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 72%.
All markets, Sheffield Utd vs Derby
The grid built from 1.80 and 1.05 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Sheffield Utd to win55%1.79
Draw24%3.82
Derby to win22%4.03
Sheffield Utd, draw no bet72%fair 1.40
Derby, draw no bet28%fair 3.52
Double chance
Sheffield Utd or draw78%1.22
Derby or draw45%1.96
Sheffield Utd or Derby (no draw)76%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals78%fair 1.29
Over 2.5 goals54%1.74
Over 3.5 goals32%fair 3.13
Over 4.5 goals16%fair 6.25
Under 1.5 goals22%fair 4.48
Under 2.5 goals46%2.02
Under 3.5 goals68%fair 1.47
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.67
Not both teams to score45%2.08
Halves
First-half goal72%fair 1.38
Over 1.5 first-half goals37%fair 2.72
Second-half goal79%fair 1.26
Team goals
Sheffield Utd to score84%fair 1.20
Derby to score65%fair 1.54
Sheffield Utd clean sheet35%fair 2.86
Derby clean sheet17%fair 6.06
Sheffield Utd to win to nil32%fair 3.11
Derby to win to nil15%fair 6.58
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-110.9%
1-010.4%
2-19.8%
2-09.4%
0-16.1%
3-15.9%
Half-time / full-time
Sheffield Utd / Sheffield Utd34.5%
Draw / Sheffield Utd17.5%
Draw / Draw13.6%
Derby / Derby12.2%
Draw / Derby8.2%
Questions about Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Sheffield Utd or Derby: which side does the model back?
The model gives Sheffield Utd the best chance at 55%, with the draw at 24%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 54%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Sheffield Utd find the net in 84% of simulated matches and Derby in 65%.
When do Sheffield Utd play Derby?
Kick-off is 11:30 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.