Championship
Round 11 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
DerbyHomeDLLDL
0:1Half-time 0:0
Stoke CityAwayWLWDW322840
Derby winDrawStoke City win
Championship
Round 11 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
DerbyHomeDLLDLStoke CityAwayWLWDW- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.60 1.21 : 1.39
- Favourite
- 40% Stoke City
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Derby vs Stoke City
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.81 | 3.36 | 2.40 | 1.93 | 1.81 | 1.72 | 2.01 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Stoke City to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Derby vs Stoke City prediction: Derby 2.81 (1xBet), draw 3.36 (1xBet), Stoke City 2.40 (1xBet).
The best-price payout across the three results is 93.4%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.93 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.81 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.72 (1xBet) and no 2.01 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
73%
Our prediction
Derby or Stoke City (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
52% chance1.81
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.72
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
73% chance1.36fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance8.00fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Stoke City, full-time Stoke City
24% chance4.12fair
First halfFirst-half goal
69% chance1.45fair
Derby vs Stoke City odds movement
Derby win2.81-0.20
Draw3.36-0.14
Stoke City win2.40-0.01
Over 2.5 goals1.93-0.10
Under 2.5 goals1.81-0.05
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Derby vs Stoke City prediction
Our Derby vs Stoke City prediction and pick
Derby vs Stoke City prediction for the Championship on Saturday, 17 October 2026: the model makes Stoke City marginally ahead at 40%, with the draw at 28% and Derby at 32%.
Expected goals are 1.21 for Derby and 1.39 for Stoke City, a total of 2.60, which puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 54%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Our main pick is derby or Stoke City (no draw) at 73%. The best price in our comparison is 1.29 at 1xBet, which implies 78%, so the model sits 5 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Derby vs Stoke City.
Form check: Derby have won 0 of their last 5 with 4 scored and 11 conceded, Stoke City 3 of 5 scoring 7 and conceding 4.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Derby vs Stoke City
Under 2.5 goals is rated 52% and under 3.5 74%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 73% and over 2.5 at 48%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 52%; 1xBet pay 1.81.
BTTS yes stands at 54%. Derby score in 70% of simulations against a 30% clean sheet for Stoke City; Stoke City score in 75% while Derby shut them out 25% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%, followed by 0-1 (10.3%) and 1-0 (9%).
With the top scoreline at 12.5%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Derby vs Stoke City; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Stoke City, full-time Stoke City is the top combination at 24%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 69%.
All markets, Derby vs Stoke City
The grid built from 1.21 and 1.39 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Derby to win32%2.81
Draw28%3.36
Stoke City to win40%2.40
Derby, draw no bet44%fair 2.26
Stoke City, draw no bet56%fair 1.80
Double chance
Derby or draw60%1.53
Stoke City or draw68%1.40
Derby or Stoke City (no draw)73%1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.08
Over 1.5 goals73%fair 1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%1.93
Over 3.5 goals26%fair 3.79
Over 4.5 goals12%fair 8.13
Under 1.5 goals27%fair 3.75
Under 2.5 goals52%1.81
Under 3.5 goals74%fair 1.36
BTTS
Both teams to score54%1.72
Not both teams to score46%2.01
Halves
First-half goal69%fair 1.45
Over 1.5 first-half goals33%fair 3.06
Second-half goal76%fair 1.31
Team goals
Derby to score70%fair 1.42
Stoke City to score75%fair 1.33
Derby clean sheet25%fair 4.02
Stoke City clean sheet30%fair 3.36
Derby to win to nil23%fair 4.37
Stoke City to win to nil27%fair 3.65
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.5%
0-110.3%
1-09%
1-28.7%
2-17.6%
0-07.4%
Half-time / full-time
Stoke City / Stoke City24.3%
Derby / Derby18.8%
Draw / Draw16.1%
Draw / Stoke City14.5%
Draw / Derby12%
Questions about Derby vs Stoke City
Derby or Stoke City: which side does the model back?
The model gives Stoke City the best chance at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Derby vs Stoke City?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 48% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stoke City?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Derby find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Stoke City in 75%.
What time does Derby vs Stoke City kick off?
Kick-off is 14:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.