Championship
Round 11 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
MiddlesbroughHomeWWDWW
2:2Half-time 0:2
CardiffAwayLWDWL661816
Middlesbrough winDrawCardiff win
Championship
Round 11 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
MiddlesbroughHomeWWDWWCardiffAwayLWDWL- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.90 2.63 : 1.27
- Favourite
- 66% Middlesbrough
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 66% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.95 | 5.61 | 1.28 | 3.08 | 1.43 | 2.63 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Middlesbrough to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Middlesbrough price at 1.45, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.95 and 1xBet have Cardiff longest at 5.61.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 93.5%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.28 (1xBet) and under 2.5 3.08 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.43 (1xBet) and no 2.63 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
66%
Our prediction
Middlesbrough to win
Double chanceMiddlesbrough or draw
84% chance1.12
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
74% chance1.28
BTTSBoth teams to score
66% chance1.43
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
90% chance1.11fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
9% chance11.24fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Middlesbrough, full-time Middlesbrough
45% chance2.22fair
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff odds movement
Middlesbrough win1.45-0.08
Draw4.95-0.30
Cardiff win5.61-0.14
Over 2.5 goals1.28-0.12
Under 2.5 goals3.08-0.45
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff prediction
Our Middlesbrough vs Cardiff prediction and pick
The Middlesbrough vs Cardiff prediction leans to Middlesbrough: 66% against 16% for Cardiff, with 18% left for the draw, in the Championship on Saturday, 17 October 2026.
Middlesbrough are expected to score 2.63 and Cardiff 1.27, so the total line is 3.90 goals; over 2.5 lands at 74% and BTTS at 66%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff is middlesbrough to win, a 66% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.45. That price implies 69%, 3 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Middlesbrough vs Cardiff.
Middlesbrough or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 84% chance, priced 1.12.
With the draw down at 18%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Over the last 5 matches Middlesbrough stand at 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats; Cardiff show 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Goals forecast for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines Middlesbrough vs Cardiff reads 90% for over 1.5, 74% for over 2.5 and 55% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 26%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 74%, best priced 1.28 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 66%, built from Middlesbrough scoring in 93% of runs and Cardiff in 72%; clean sheets come at 28% for Middlesbrough and 7% for Cardiff.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8.9%, followed by 3-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (7%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 8.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Middlesbrough, full-time Middlesbrough leads at 45%. A goal before the break is rated 83%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Middlesbrough to win66%1.45
Draw18%4.95
Cardiff to win16%5.61
Middlesbrough, draw no bet80%fair 1.25
Cardiff, draw no bet20%fair 5.03
Double chance
Middlesbrough or draw84%1.12
Cardiff or draw34%2.63
Middlesbrough or Cardiff (no draw)82%1.15
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals90%fair 1.11
Over 2.5 goals74%1.28
Over 3.5 goals55%fair 1.83
Over 4.5 goals35%fair 2.85
Under 1.5 goals10%fair 10.00
Under 2.5 goals26%3.08
Under 3.5 goals45%fair 2.20
BTTS
Both teams to score66%1.43
Not both teams to score34%2.63
Halves
First-half goal83%fair 1.21
Over 1.5 first-half goals52%fair 1.91
Second-half goal88%fair 1.13
Team goals
Middlesbrough to score93%fair 1.08
Cardiff to score72%fair 1.39
Middlesbrough clean sheet28%fair 3.56
Cardiff clean sheet7%fair 13.89
Middlesbrough to win to nil26%fair 3.88
Cardiff to win to nil7%fair 15.15
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-18.9%
3-17.8%
2-07%
1-16.8%
3-06.1%
2-25.6%
Half-time / full-time
Middlesbrough / Middlesbrough45.1%
Draw / Middlesbrough17.1%
Cardiff / Cardiff9.3%
Draw / Draw8.4%
Draw / Cardiff5.6%
Questions about Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Middlesbrough or Cardiff: which side does the model back?
The model gives Middlesbrough the best chance at 66%, with the draw at 18%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What is the correct score prediction for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 8.9%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 74% backs the same picture with less variance.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 66%. Middlesbrough find the net in 93% of simulated matches and Cardiff in 72%.
When is Middlesbrough vs Cardiff and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 11:30 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.