First League predictions for every fixture

First League predictions for the coming round

First League predictions cover 9 of the next 9 fixtures. 0 of them already carry bookmaker prices. On an average fixture in this round the model makes the favourite a 48% chance, the draw 26%, over 2.5 goals 45% and BTTS 49%.

Expected goals average 2.51 a match, so the goal lines open below 2.5 for most of the round. Home sides are favoured in 6 of the 9 rated fixtures. 1 pick reaches banker grade, which needs a chance of 80% or more.

The strongest First League pick of the round is cherno More Varna or draw in Cherno More Varna v Botev Vratsa on Mon 2 Nov, rated 77% and best priced at 1.20 with Stake.

No First League pick in this round clears the 3% edge bar against the best price, so the value page lists nothing from this competition today. The picks below stand on probability alone.

Each row on the board shows the three-way bar, the pick in green and the best price. The match pages print every market, the six most likely scores and the full First League odds table.

First League results and trends, last 60 days

The last 40 First League matches of the past 60 days produced 13 home wins, 12 draws and 15 away wins. That is a home win rate of 33% and a draw rate of 30%.

Goals averaged 2.62 a match, 1.40 for the home side and 1.23 for the visitors. Over 2.5 goals landed in 43% of matches and over 1.5 in 73%. Both teams scored in 48%, and at least one side kept a clean sheet in 53%.

The highest-scoring match in the window was CSKA 1948 6-1 Spartak Varna on Fri 30 Oct.

The model rates over 2.5 at 45% for the coming round against a 43% strike rate in these results, so the two readings agree.

The results block under the board lists each match with the final score, the half-time score and the pick that was frozen before kick-off, so the trend can be checked line by line.

How the First League tips have gone

The First League record starts with the first settled matchday. 16 tips for this competition are already frozen: the 1X2 or double chance line, over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, the correct score, the half-time/full-time call and the first-half goal line for every rated match inside 40 hours of kick-off.

Once a round has been played, the hit rate, the flat-stake return and the best-performing market for the competition appear in this block. The same figures are broken down by market on the results pages, where every graded tip is listed with its chance and price.

A frozen tip cannot be edited or withdrawn after the freeze, so the First League record reads the same way as the site-wide one: what was published, then what came in.

First League odds comparison

Bookmakers have priced 6 of the coming First League fixtures, with a median of 5 prices per outcome on a typical match. Taking the best price on each 1X2 outcome pays 92.8% of stakes across the round, against 92.3% at an average single bookmaker.

That gap of 0.5 points is what the comparison saves before any pick is made. Every match page lists each bookmaker's 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS lines with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link.

The edge printed beside a pick compares the model chance with that best price. The value bets page collects the largest gaps across every competition and the banker page the highest chances, with First League rows included whenever they qualify.