FAW Championship
Newport CityHomeDDLDW
4:4Half-time 0:3
Pontypridd TownAwayLWDDW402535
Newport City winDrawPontypridd Town win
Newport CityHomeDDLDWPontypridd TownAwayLWDDW- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.16 1.63 : 1.53
- Favourite
- 40% Newport City
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 65% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Newport City vs Pontypridd Town betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.48 | 2.51 | 1.53 | 2.21 | 1.46 | 2.46 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Newport City to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Newport City price at 2.29, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.48 and 1xBet have Pontypridd Town longest at 2.51.
The best-price payout across the three results is 89.1%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.53 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.21 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.46 (1xBet) and no 2.46 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
75%
Our prediction
Newport City or Pontypridd Town (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
61% chance1.53
BTTSBoth teams to score
65% chance1.46
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.22fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.43fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Newport City, full-time Newport City
24% chance4.10fair
First halfFirst-half goal
76% chance1.32fair
Newport City vs Pontypridd Town prediction
Newport City vs Pontypridd Town prediction, who wins and at what price
Newport City vs Pontypridd Town prediction for the FAW Championship on Friday, 23 October 2026: the model calls it close, Newport City 40%, draw 25%, Pontypridd Town 35%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
The goal expectancy is 3.16 in total, split 1.63 to Newport City and 1.53 to Pontypridd Town. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 61% and both teams to score 65%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Newport City vs Pontypridd Town is newport City or Pontypridd Town (no draw), a 75% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.20 at 1xBet, which implies 83%, so the model sits 8 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Newport City stand at 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Pontypridd Town show 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in 5.
Goals forecast for Newport City vs Pontypridd Town with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 40% and under 3.5 61%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 82% and over 2.5 at 61%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 61%; 1xBet pay 1.53.
BTTS yes stands at 65%. Newport City score in 80% of simulations against a 20% clean sheet for Pontypridd Town; Pontypridd Town score in 78% while Newport City shut them out 22% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 65%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.6%, then 2-1 at 8.6% and 1-2 at 8.1%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Newport City, full-time Newport City leads at 24%. A goal before the break is rated 76%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Newport City vs Pontypridd Town
The grid built from 1.63 and 1.53 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Newport City to win40%2.29
Draw25%3.48
Pontypridd Town to win35%2.51
Newport City, draw no bet53%fair 1.89
Pontypridd Town, draw no bet47%fair 2.12
Double chance
Newport City or draw65%1.38
Pontypridd Town or draw60%1.46
Newport City or Pontypridd Town (no draw)75%1.20
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goals61%1.53
Over 3.5 goals39%fair 2.57
Over 4.5 goals21%fair 4.72
Under 1.5 goals18%fair 5.65
Under 2.5 goals40%2.21
Under 3.5 goals61%fair 1.64
BTTS
Both teams to score65%1.46
Not both teams to score35%2.46
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.32
Over 1.5 first-half goals42%fair 2.40
Second-half goal82%fair 1.21
Team goals
Newport City to score80%fair 1.24
Pontypridd Town to score78%fair 1.28
Newport City clean sheet22%fair 4.61
Pontypridd Town clean sheet20%fair 5.10
Newport City to win to nil20%fair 5.03
Pontypridd Town to win to nil18%fair 5.56
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.6%
2-18.6%
1-28.1%
1-06.9%
2-26.6%
0-16.5%
Half-time / full-time
Newport City / Newport City24.4%
Pontypridd Town / Pontypridd Town21.5%
Draw / Newport City13.2%
Draw / Draw12.7%
Draw / Pontypridd Town12%
Questions about Newport City vs Pontypridd Town
Who is favourite in Newport City vs Pontypridd Town?
The model gives Newport City the best chance at 40%, with the draw at 25%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Newport City vs Pontypridd Town?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 61%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Newport City vs Pontypridd Town both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 65%. Newport City find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Pontypridd Town in 78%.
When is Newport City vs Pontypridd Town and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 18:30 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.