FAW Championship
Caerau (Ely)HomeWWWLW
0:2Half-time 0:1
Llantwit MajorAwayWLDWL751411
Caerau (Ely) winDrawLlantwit Major win
Caerau (Ely)HomeWWWLWLlantwit MajorAwayWLDWL- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.74 2.79 : 0.95
- Favourite
- 75% Caerau (Ely)
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 58% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.23 | 5.50 | 8.75 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.66 | 2.05 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Caerau (Ely) to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Caerau (Ely) price at 1.23, 1xBet lead the draw at 5.50 and 1xBet have Llantwit Major longest at 8.75.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.2%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.33 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.83 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.66 (1xBet) and no 2.05 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
75%
Our prediction
Caerau (Ely) to win
Double chanceCaerau (Ely) or draw
89% chance1.01
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
71% chance1.33
BTTSBoth teams to score
58% chance1.66
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
89% chance1.13fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-0
9% chance10.87fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Caerau (Ely), full-time Caerau (Ely)
53% chance1.88fair
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major prediction
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major prediction and best bet
The Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major prediction leans to Caerau (Ely): 75% against 11% for Llantwit Major, with 14% left for the draw, in the FAW Championship on Friday, 23 October 2026.
The goal expectancy is 3.74 in total, split 2.79 to Caerau (Ely) and 0.95 to Llantwit Major. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 71% and both teams to score 58%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Caerau (Ely) to win is the main selection, rated 75%. At 1.23 with 1xBet the market prices it at 81%, against 75% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major.
Caerau (Ely) or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 89% chance, priced 1.01.
With the draw down at 14%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Form check: Caerau (Ely) have won 4 of their last 5 with 7 scored and 3 conceded, Llantwit Major 2 of 5 scoring 8 and conceding 9.
Goals forecast for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 89%, over 2.5 at 71%, over 3.5 at 51%; under 2.5 is 29% and under 3.5 is 49%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 71%, best priced 1.33 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 58%, built from Caerau (Ely) scoring in 94% of runs and Llantwit Major in 61%; clean sheets come at 39% for Caerau (Ely) and 6% for Llantwit Major.
Correct score: 2-0 leads at 9.2%, then 2-1 at 8.8% and 3-0 at 8.6%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Caerau (Ely), full-time Caerau (Ely) is the top combination at 53%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 81%.
Every market rated for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major
The grid built from 2.79 and 0.95 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win75%1.23
Draw14%5.50
Llantwit Major to win11%8.75
Caerau (Ely), draw no bet87%fair 1.14
Llantwit Major, draw no bet13%fair 7.94
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw89%1.01
Llantwit Major or draw25%3.38
Caerau (Ely) or Llantwit Major (no draw)86%1.08
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals89%fair 1.13
Over 2.5 goals71%1.33
Over 3.5 goals51%fair 1.95
Over 4.5 goals32%fair 3.13
Under 1.5 goals11%fair 8.85
Under 2.5 goals29%2.83
Under 3.5 goals49%fair 2.06
BTTS
Both teams to score58%1.66
Not both teams to score43%2.05
Halves
First-half goal81%fair 1.23
Over 1.5 first-half goals50%fair 2.00
Second-half goal87%fair 1.15
Team goals
Caerau (Ely) to score94%fair 1.06
Llantwit Major to score61%fair 1.63
Caerau (Ely) clean sheet39%fair 2.58
Llantwit Major clean sheet6%fair 16.39
Caerau (Ely) to win to nil36%fair 2.81
Llantwit Major to win to nil6%fair 17.54
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-09.2%
2-18.8%
3-08.6%
3-18.2%
1-06.6%
1-16.3%
Half-time / full-time
Caerau (Ely) / Caerau (Ely)53.1%
Draw / Caerau (Ely)18.6%
Draw / Draw7.6%
Llantwit Major / Llantwit Major5.5%
Llantwit Major / Caerau (Ely)3.7%
Questions about Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major
Who is favourite in Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
The model gives Caerau (Ely) the best chance at 75%, with the draw at 14%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 9.2%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 71% backs the same picture with less variance.
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 58%. Caerau (Ely) find the net in 94% of simulated matches and Llantwit Major in 61%.
What time does Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major kick off?
Kick-off is 18:45 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.