FAW Championship
Llantwit MajorHomeWLDWL
2:3Half-time 1:3
Newport CityAwayDDLDW292447
Llantwit Major winDrawNewport City win
Llantwit MajorHomeWLDWLNewport CityAwayDDLDW- Kick-off Sat 31 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.12 1.36 : 1.76
- Favourite
- 47% Newport City
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 64% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Llantwit Major vs Newport City odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.99 | 3.54 | 2.03 | 1.53 | 2.21 | 1.48 | 2.41 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.99 | 3.75 | 2.14 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.59 | 2.28 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 3.00 | 3.65 | 2.04 | 1.58 | 2.26 | 1.50 | 2.32 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.99 | 3.75 | 2.14 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.59 | 2.28 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.99 | 3.75 | 2.14 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.59 | 2.28 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Newport City to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Llantwit Major vs Newport City prediction: Llantwit Major 3.00 (BC.Game), draw 3.75 (Melbet), Newport City 2.14 (Melbet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 93.6%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.60 (Betwinner) and under 2.5 2.26 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.59 (Melbet) and no 2.41 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
76%
Our prediction
Llantwit Major or Newport City (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
60% chance1.60
BTTSBoth teams to score
64% chance1.59
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.22fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.43fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Newport City, full-time Newport City
29% chance3.45fair
First halfFirst-half goal
75% chance1.33fair
Llantwit Major vs Newport City prediction
Llantwit Major vs Newport City prediction, who wins and at what price
Llantwit Major host Newport City on Saturday, 31 October 2026 in the FAW Championship, and the model has Newport City at 47%, the draw at 24% and Llantwit Major at 29%: that is the Llantwit Major vs Newport City prediction in one line.
The goal expectancy is 3.12 in total, split 1.36 to Llantwit Major and 1.76 to Newport City. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 60% and both teams to score 64%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Llantwit Major or Newport City (no draw) is the main selection, rated 76%. Melbet offer the top price at 1.25. That price implies 80%, 4 points over the model figure.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Llantwit Major average 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across their last 5, Newport City 2.0 and 2.0 across 5.
How many goals in Llantwit Major vs Newport City? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 60%, over 3.5 at 38%; under 2.5 is 40% and under 3.5 is 62%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 60%; Betwinner pay 1.60.
Both teams to score is 64%: Llantwit Major find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Newport City in 83%. Llantwit Major keep a clean sheet 17% of the time and Newport City 26%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Llantwit Major vs Newport City: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Newport City, full-time Newport City leads at 29%. A goal before the break is rated 75%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Llantwit Major vs Newport City
The grid built from 1.36 and 1.76 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Llantwit Major to win29%3.00
Draw24%3.75
Newport City to win47%2.14
Llantwit Major, draw no bet39%fair 2.59
Newport City, draw no bet61%fair 1.63
Double chance
Llantwit Major or draw54%1.66
Newport City or draw71%1.36
Llantwit Major or Newport City (no draw)76%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.60
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.63
Over 4.5 goals21%fair 4.88
Under 1.5 goals18%fair 5.49
Under 2.5 goals40%2.26
Under 3.5 goals62%fair 1.61
BTTS
Both teams to score64%1.59
Not both teams to score36%2.41
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.33
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.44
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Llantwit Major to score74%fair 1.35
Newport City to score83%fair 1.21
Llantwit Major clean sheet17%fair 5.81
Newport City clean sheet26%fair 3.89
Llantwit Major to win to nil16%fair 6.33
Newport City to win to nil24%fair 4.24
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.6%
1-29.3%
0-17.8%
2-17.2%
0-26.8%
2-26.3%
Half-time / full-time
Newport City / Newport City29%
Llantwit Major / Llantwit Major17.3%
Draw / Newport City14.9%
Draw / Draw12.7%
Draw / Llantwit Major10.3%
Questions about Llantwit Major vs Newport City
Who will win Llantwit Major vs Newport City?
The model gives Newport City the best chance at 47%, with the draw at 24%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Llantwit Major vs Newport City correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 60%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Llantwit Major vs Newport City?
The BTTS yes line is rated 64%. Llantwit Major find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Newport City in 83%.
When do Llantwit Major play Newport City?
Llantwit Major vs Newport City starts at 14:00 UTC on Saturday, 31 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.