FAW Championship
Caerau (Ely)HomeWWWLW
Fri 6 Nov
Pontypridd TownAwayLWDDW382141
Caerau (Ely) winDrawPontypridd Town win
Caerau (Ely)HomeWWWLWPontypridd TownAwayLWDDW- Kick-off Fri 6 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.97 1.93 : 2.04
- Favourite
- 42% Pontypridd Town
- Over 2.5 goals
- 76% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 74% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
79%
Our prediction
Caerau (Ely) or Pontypridd Town (no draw)
1.26fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
76% chance1.32fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
74% chance1.35fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
91% chance1.10fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
8% chance13.16fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Pontypridd Town, full-time Pontypridd Town
26% chance3.86fair
First halfFirst-half goal
83% chance1.20fair
Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town prediction
Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town prediction and best bet
Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town prediction for the FAW Championship on Friday, 6 November 2026: the model calls it close, Caerau (Ely) 38%, draw 21%, Pontypridd Town 42%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
Expected goals are 1.93 for Caerau (Ely) and 2.04 for Pontypridd Town, a total of 3.97, which puts over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 74%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town is caerau (Ely) or Pontypridd Town (no draw), a 79% chance. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.
With the draw down at 21%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Over the last 5 matches Caerau (Ely) stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Pontypridd Town show 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in 5.
Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 91%, over 2.5 at 76%, over 3.5 at 56%; under 2.5 is 24% and under 3.5 is 44%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Both teams to score is 74%: Caerau (Ely) find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Pontypridd Town in 87%. Caerau (Ely) keep a clean sheet 13% of the time and Pontypridd Town 15%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 74%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 7.6%, followed by 1-1 (7.4%) and 2-2 (7.3%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Pontypridd Town, full-time Pontypridd Town leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 83%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 38% / 21% / 42% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win38%fair 2.67
Draw21%fair 4.81
Pontypridd Town to win42%fair 2.40
Caerau (Ely), draw no bet47%fair 2.11
Pontypridd Town, draw no bet53%fair 1.90
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw58%fair 1.72
Pontypridd Town or draw63%fair 1.60
Caerau (Ely) or Pontypridd Town (no draw)79%fair 1.26
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 2.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 3.5 goals56%fair 1.78
Over 4.5 goals37%fair 2.74
Under 1.5 goals9%fair 10.64
Under 2.5 goals24%fair 4.10
Under 3.5 goals44%fair 2.28
BTTS
Both teams to score74%fair 1.35
Not both teams to score26%fair 3.89
Halves
First-half goal83%fair 1.20
Over 1.5 first-half goals53%fair 1.88
Second-half goal89%fair 1.13
Team goals
Caerau (Ely) to score86%fair 1.17
Pontypridd Town to score87%fair 1.15
Caerau (Ely) clean sheet13%fair 7.69
Pontypridd Town clean sheet15%fair 6.90
Caerau (Ely) to win to nil12%fair 8.33
Pontypridd Town to win to nil13%fair 7.46
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-27.6%
1-17.4%
2-27.3%
2-17.2%
1-35.2%
2-35%
Half-time / full-time
Pontypridd Town / Pontypridd Town25.9%
Caerau (Ely) / Caerau (Ely)23%
Draw / Pontypridd Town12.2%
Draw / Caerau (Ely)11.2%
Draw / Draw9.7%
Questions about Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town
Caerau (Ely) or Pontypridd Town: which side does the model back?
The model gives Pontypridd Town the best chance at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 7.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 76% backs the same picture with less variance.
Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 74%. Caerau (Ely) find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Pontypridd Town in 87%.
When do Caerau (Ely) play Pontypridd Town?
Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town starts at 19:45 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.