FAW Championship
llanelli AFCHomeLLLLL
Fri 6 Nov
Pontardawe TownAwayWWDW181963
llanelli AFC winDrawPontardawe Town win
llanelli AFCHomeLLLLLPontardawe TownAwayWWDW- Kick-off Fri 6 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.59 1.20 : 2.39
- Favourite
- 63% Pontardawe Town
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 64% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
63%
Our prediction
Pontardawe Town to win
1.58fair
Double chancePontardawe Town or draw
82% chance1.22fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
69% chance1.45fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
64% chance1.57fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
87% chance1.15fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
10% chance10.53fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Pontardawe Town, full-time Pontardawe Town
42% chance2.36fair
llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town prediction
llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town prediction and best bet
llanelli AFC host Pontardawe Town on Friday, 6 November 2026 in the FAW Championship, and the model has Pontardawe Town at 63%, the draw at 19% and llanelli AFC at 18%: that is the llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.20 for llanelli AFC and 2.39 for Pontardawe Town, a total of 3.59, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 64%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town is pontardawe Town to win, a 63% chance. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
Pontardawe Town or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 82% chance.
With the draw down at 19%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Form check: llanelli AFC have won 0 of their last 5 with 3 scored and 17 conceded, Pontardawe Town 3 of 4 scoring 12 and conceding 5.
Goals forecast for llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 31% and under 3.5 52%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 87% and over 2.5 at 69%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Both teams to score is 64%: llanelli AFC find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Pontardawe Town in 91%. llanelli AFC keep a clean sheet 9% of the time and Pontardawe Town 30%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9.5%, followed by 1-1 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.9%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Pontardawe Town, full-time Pontardawe Town is the top combination at 42%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 80%.
Every market rated for llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town
The grid built from 1.20 and 2.39 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
llanelli AFC to win18%fair 5.52
Draw19%fair 5.35
Pontardawe Town to win63%fair 1.58
llanelli AFC, draw no bet22%fair 4.48
Pontardawe Town, draw no bet78%fair 1.29
Double chance
llanelli AFC or draw37%fair 2.72
Pontardawe Town or draw82%fair 1.22
llanelli AFC or Pontardawe Town (no draw)81%fair 1.23
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 2.5 goals69%fair 1.45
Over 3.5 goals48%fair 2.07
Over 4.5 goals29%fair 3.44
Under 1.5 goals13%fair 7.87
Under 2.5 goals31%fair 3.25
Under 3.5 goals52%fair 1.93
BTTS
Both teams to score64%fair 1.57
Not both teams to score37%fair 2.74
Halves
First-half goal80%fair 1.25
Over 1.5 first-half goals48%fair 2.08
Second-half goal86%fair 1.16
Team goals
llanelli AFC to score70%fair 1.43
Pontardawe Town to score91%fair 1.10
llanelli AFC clean sheet9%fair 10.87
Pontardawe Town clean sheet30%fair 3.32
llanelli AFC to win to nil8%fair 11.90
Pontardawe Town to win to nil28%fair 3.61
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-29.5%
1-17.9%
0-27.9%
1-37.5%
0-16.6%
0-36.3%
Half-time / full-time
Pontardawe Town / Pontardawe Town42.4%
Draw / Pontardawe Town17.4%
llanelli AFC / llanelli AFC10%
Draw / Draw9.6%
Draw / llanelli AFC6.2%
Questions about llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town
Who is favourite in llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town?
The model gives Pontardawe Town the best chance at 63%, with the draw at 19%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town correct score: what does the model say?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9.5%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 69%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town?
The BTTS yes line is rated 64%. llanelli AFC find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Pontardawe Town in 91%.
When is llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 19:30 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.