FAW Championship
Caerphilly AthleticHomeLLWWL
0:1Half-time 0:1
Caerau (Ely)AwayWWWLW282250
Caerphilly Athletic winDrawCaerau (Ely) win
Caerphilly AthleticHomeLLWWLCaerau (Ely)AwayWWWLW- Kick-off Fri 30 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.56 1.51 : 2.05
- Favourite
- 50% Caerau (Ely)
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 69% model chance
- Prices compared
- 4 in the odds table
Best odds for Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 22Bet | 3.11 | 4.15 | 1.97 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.54 | 2.38 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 3.20 | 4.00 | 1.87 | 1.43 | 2.64 | 1.42 | 2.52 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 3.11 | 4.15 | 1.97 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.54 | 2.38 | Bet |
 Melbet | 3.11 | 4.15 | 1.97 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.54 | 2.38 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Caerau (Ely) to win partner prices
BC.Game pay the best Caerphilly Athletic price at 3.20, 22Bet lead the draw at 4.15 and 22Bet have Caerau (Ely) longest at 1.97.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 94.2%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.50 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.64 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.54 (22Bet) and no 2.52 (BC.Game).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
78%
Our prediction
Caerphilly Athletic or Caerau (Ely) (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
69% chance1.50
BTTSBoth teams to score
69% chance1.54
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
87% chance1.15fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
9% chance11.11fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Caerau (Ely), full-time Caerau (Ely)
32% chance3.14fair
First halfFirst-half goal
80% chance1.25fair
Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) prediction
Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) prediction and best bet
Caerphilly Athletic host Caerau (Ely) on Friday, 30 October 2026 in the FAW Championship, and the model has Caerau (Ely) at 50%, the draw at 22% and Caerphilly Athletic at 28%: that is the Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) prediction in one line.
Caerphilly Athletic are expected to score 1.51 and Caerau (Ely) 2.05, so the total line is 3.56 goals; over 2.5 lands at 69% and BTTS at 69%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is caerphilly Athletic or Caerau (Ely) (no draw) at 78%. The best price in our comparison is 1.21 at 22Bet, which implies 83%, so the model sits 5 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Caerphilly Athletic stand at 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Caerau (Ely) show 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats in 5.
Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 87%, over 2.5 at 69%, over 3.5 at 48%; under 2.5 is 31% and under 3.5 is 52%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 69%, best priced 1.50 at 22Bet.
Both teams to score is 69%: Caerphilly Athletic find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Caerau (Ely) in 87%. Caerphilly Athletic keep a clean sheet 13% of the time and Caerau (Ely) 22%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 69%.
Correct score: 1-2 leads at 9%, then 1-1 at 8.8% and 2-2 at 6.8%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Caerau (Ely), full-time Caerau (Ely) is the top combination at 32%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 80%.
Every market for Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 28% / 22% / 50% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Caerphilly Athletic to win28%3.20
Draw22%4.15
Caerau (Ely) to win50%1.97
Caerphilly Athletic, draw no bet36%fair 2.79
Caerau (Ely), draw no bet64%fair 1.56
Double chance
Caerphilly Athletic or draw50%1.78
Caerau (Ely) or draw72%1.34
Caerphilly Athletic or Caerau (Ely) (no draw)78%1.21
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 2.5 goals69%1.50
Over 3.5 goals48%fair 2.10
Over 4.5 goals29%fair 3.50
Under 1.5 goals13%fair 7.69
Under 2.5 goals31%2.64
Under 3.5 goals52%fair 1.91
BTTS
Both teams to score69%1.54
Not both teams to score31%2.52
Halves
First-half goal80%fair 1.25
Over 1.5 first-half goals48%fair 2.10
Second-half goal86%fair 1.16
Team goals
Caerphilly Athletic to score78%fair 1.28
Caerau (Ely) to score87%fair 1.15
Caerphilly Athletic clean sheet13%fair 7.75
Caerau (Ely) clean sheet22%fair 4.52
Caerphilly Athletic to win to nil12%fair 8.47
Caerau (Ely) to win to nil20%fair 4.93
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-29%
1-18.8%
2-26.8%
2-16.6%
1-36.2%
0-26%
Half-time / full-time
Caerau (Ely) / Caerau (Ely)31.8%
Caerphilly Athletic / Caerphilly Athletic16.7%
Draw / Caerau (Ely)14.8%
Draw / Draw10.7%
Draw / Caerphilly Athletic9.4%
Questions about Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)
Who is favourite in Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)?
The model gives Caerau (Ely) the best chance at 50%, with the draw at 22%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 69%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)?
The BTTS yes line is rated 69%. Caerphilly Athletic find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Caerau (Ely) in 87%.
When do Caerphilly Athletic play Caerau (Ely)?
Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) starts at 19:45 UTC on Friday, 30 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.