Copa del Rey
PoblenseHomeL
1:2Half-time 1:0
AD Ceuta FCAwayLLLWL232552
Poblense winDrawAD Ceuta FC win
PoblenseHomeLAD Ceuta FCAwayLLLWL- Kick-off Thu 29 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.86 1.11 : 1.75
- Favourite
- 52% AD Ceuta FC
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 56% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 4.36 | 3.82 | 1.73 | 1.70 | 2.08 | 1.66 | 2.09 | Bet |
 22Bet | 3.97 | 3.87 | 1.79 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 2.11 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.73 | 1.69 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 2.08 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 3.97 | 3.87 | 1.79 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 2.11 | Bet |
 Melbet | 3.97 | 3.87 | 1.79 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 2.11 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
AD Ceuta FC to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC are 4.36 for Poblense at 1xBet, 3.87 for the draw at 22Bet and 1.79 for AD Ceuta FC at 22Bet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 95.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.74 (Melbet) and under 2.5 2.10 (Melbet); both teams to score yes pays 1.68 (22Bet) and no 2.11 (22Bet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
52%
Our prediction
AD Ceuta FC to win
Double chanceAD Ceuta FC or draw
77% chance1.22
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
54% chance1.74
BTTSBoth teams to score
56% chance1.68
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
78% chance1.28fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.01fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time AD Ceuta FC, full-time AD Ceuta FC
33% chance3.07fair
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC odds movement
Poblense win4.36-0.14
Draw3.87-0.13
AD Ceuta FC win1.79-0.04
Over 2.5 goals1.74unchanged
Under 2.5 goals2.10-0.06
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC prediction
Our Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC prediction and pick
Poblense host AD Ceuta FC on Thursday, 29 October 2026 in the Copa del Rey, and the model has AD Ceuta FC at 52%, the draw at 25% and Poblense at 23%: that is the Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC prediction in one line.
Poblense are expected to score 1.11 and AD Ceuta FC 1.75, so the total line is 2.86 goals; over 2.5 lands at 54% and BTTS at 56%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
AD Ceuta FC to win is the main selection, rated 52%. 22Bet offer the top price at 1.79. That price implies 56%, 4 points over the model figure.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
For a safer line, aD Ceuta FC or draw covers 77% of outcomes at 1.22.
How many goals in Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 78%, over 2.5 at 54%, over 3.5 at 32%; under 2.5 is 46% and under 3.5 is 68%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 54%; Melbet pay 1.74.
BTTS yes stands at 56%. Poblense score in 67% of simulations against a 33% clean sheet for AD Ceuta FC; AD Ceuta FC score in 83% while Poblense shut them out 17% of the time.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 11.1%, then 0-1 at 10% and 1-2 at 9.7%.
With the top scoreline at 11.1%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time AD Ceuta FC, full-time AD Ceuta FC leads at 33%. A goal before the break is rated 72%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC
The grid built from 1.11 and 1.75 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Poblense to win23%4.36
Draw25%3.87
AD Ceuta FC to win52%1.79
Poblense, draw no bet31%fair 3.23
AD Ceuta FC, draw no bet69%fair 1.45
Double chance
Poblense or draw48%2.04
AD Ceuta FC or draw77%1.22
Poblense or AD Ceuta FC (no draw)75%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals78%fair 1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.74
Over 3.5 goals32%fair 3.12
Over 4.5 goals16%fair 6.17
Under 1.5 goals22%fair 4.52
Under 2.5 goals46%2.10
Under 3.5 goals68%fair 1.47
BTTS
Both teams to score56%1.68
Not both teams to score44%2.11
Halves
First-half goal72%fair 1.38
Over 1.5 first-half goals37%fair 2.71
Second-half goal79%fair 1.26
Team goals
Poblense to score67%fair 1.49
AD Ceuta FC to score83%fair 1.21
Poblense clean sheet17%fair 5.75
AD Ceuta FC clean sheet33%fair 3.03
Poblense to win to nil16%fair 6.25
AD Ceuta FC to win to nil30%fair 3.30
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.1%
0-110%
1-29.7%
0-28.8%
1-06.4%
2-16.2%
Half-time / full-time
AD Ceuta FC / AD Ceuta FC32.6%
Draw / AD Ceuta FC16.9%
Draw / Draw13.8%
Poblense / Poblense13.5%
Draw / Poblense8.9%
Questions about Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC
Who will win Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC?
The model gives AD Ceuta FC the best chance at 52%, with the draw at 25%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.1%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 54%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 56%. Poblense find the net in 67% of simulated matches and AD Ceuta FC in 83%.
What time does Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC kick off?
Kick-off is 18:00 UTC on Thursday, 29 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.