Numancia vs Oviedo prediction

Our Numancia vs Oviedo prediction and pick

Oviedo are marginally ahead in the Numancia vs Oviedo prediction, rated 43% to win this Copa del Rey match on Thursday, 29 October 2026. Numancia sit at 32% and the draw at 25%.

Expected goals are 1.08 for Numancia and 1.33 for Oviedo, a total of 2.41, which puts over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Numancia vs Oviedo is numancia or Oviedo (no draw), a 75% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.28. That price implies 78%, 3 points over the model figure.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Numancia vs Oviedo

On the goal lines Numancia vs Oviedo reads 69% for over 1.5, 43% for over 2.5 and 22% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 57%.

Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 57%; BC.Game pay 1.65.

BTTS yes stands at 49%. Numancia score in 66% of simulations against a 34% clean sheet for Oviedo; Oviedo score in 74% while Numancia shut them out 26% of the time.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.9%, then 0-1 at 11.9% and 1-0 at 9.7%.

With the top scoreline at 12.9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Numancia vs Oviedo; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Oviedo, full-time Oviedo is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 66%.