Peru Primera División
UCV MoqueguaHomeLWLLD
0:1Half-time 0:0
Alianza LimaAwayWWWWL162361
UCV Moquegua winDrawAlianza Lima win
UCV MoqueguaHomeLWLLDAlianza LimaAwayWWWWL- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.52 0.76 : 1.76
- Favourite
- 61% Alianza Lima
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 45% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Best odds for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 6.44 | 3.82 | 1.51 | 2.02 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.67 | Bet |
 22Bet | 5.52 | 3.76 | 1.61 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 1.74 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 6.00 | 3.45 | 1.58 | 2.06 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 1.68 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 5.52 | 3.76 | 1.61 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 1.74 | Bet |
 Melbet | 5.52 | 3.76 | 1.61 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 1.74 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Alianza Lima to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima prediction: UCV Moquegua 6.44 (1xBet), draw 3.82 (1xBet), Alianza Lima 1.61 (Betwinner).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 96.3%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.11 (22Bet) and under 2.5 1.73 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.08 (1xBet) and no 1.74 (Melbet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
61%
Our prediction
Alianza Lima to win
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw
85% chance1.13
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
54% chance1.73
BTTSNot both teams to score
55% chance1.74
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
72% chance1.39fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-1
14% chance7.04fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Alianza Lima, full-time Alianza Lima
39% chance2.58fair
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima prediction
Our UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima prediction and pick
Alianza Lima are the clear favourite in the UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima prediction, rated 61% to win this Peru Primera División match on Sunday, 25 October 2026. UCV Moquegua sit at 16% and the draw at 23%.
UCV Moquegua are expected to score 0.76 and Alianza Lima 1.76, so the total line is 2.52 goals; over 2.5 lands at 46% and BTTS at 45%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is alianza Lima to win at 61%. At 1.61 with Betwinner the market prices it at 62%, against 61% from the model.
Alianza Lima or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 85% chance, priced 1.13.
UCV Moquegua average 0.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Alianza Lima 2.0 and 1.0 across 5.
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 72%, over 2.5 at 46%, over 3.5 at 25%; under 2.5 is 54% and under 3.5 is 75%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 54%, best priced 1.73 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 45%. UCV Moquegua score in 53% of simulations against a 47% clean sheet for Alianza Lima; Alianza Lima score in 83% while UCV Moquegua shut them out 17% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima: 0-1 (14.2%), 0-2 (12.5%) and 1-1 (10.8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 14.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Alianza Lima, full-time Alianza Lima is the top combination at 39%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 68%.
All markets, UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
The grid built from 0.76 and 1.76 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
UCV Moquegua to win16%6.44
Draw23%3.82
Alianza Lima to win61%1.61
UCV Moquegua, draw no bet20%fair 4.93
Alianza Lima, draw no bet80%fair 1.25
Double chance
UCV Moquegua or draw39%2.40
Alianza Lima or draw85%1.13
UCV Moquegua or Alianza Lima (no draw)77%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals72%fair 1.39
Over 2.5 goals46%2.11
Over 3.5 goals25%fair 4.05
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 9.01
Under 1.5 goals28%fair 3.53
Under 2.5 goals54%1.73
Under 3.5 goals75%fair 1.33
BTTS
Both teams to score45%2.08
Not both teams to score55%1.74
Halves
First-half goal68%fair 1.47
Over 1.5 first-half goals31%fair 3.19
Second-half goal75%fair 1.33
Team goals
UCV Moquegua to score53%fair 1.88
Alianza Lima to score83%fair 1.21
UCV Moquegua clean sheet17%fair 5.81
Alianza Lima clean sheet47%fair 2.14
UCV Moquegua to win to nil14%fair 6.94
Alianza Lima to win to nil43%fair 2.33
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
0-114.2%
0-212.5%
1-110.8%
1-29.5%
0-08%
0-37.3%
Half-time / full-time
Alianza Lima / Alianza Lima38.8%
Draw / Alianza Lima20%
Draw / Draw15%
UCV Moquegua / UCV Moquegua8.4%
Draw / UCV Moquegua6.5%
Questions about UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives Alianza Lima the best chance at 61%, with the draw at 23%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 14.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 46%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
The BTTS yes line is rated 45%. UCV Moquegua find the net in 53% of simulated matches and Alianza Lima in 83%.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 18:15 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.