Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau prediction

Our Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau prediction and pick

Alianza Lima host Atletico Grau on Sunday, 18 October 2026 in the Peru Primera División, and the model has Alianza Lima at 75%, the draw at 17% and Atletico Grau at 9%: that is the Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau prediction in one line.

Alianza Lima are expected to score 2.28 and Atletico Grau 0.66, so the total line is 2.94 goals; over 2.5 lands at 55% and BTTS at 44%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau is alianza Lima to win, a 75% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.29 at 1xBet, which implies 78%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

Alianza Lima or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 91% chance, priced 1.03.

With the draw down at 17%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Over the last 5 matches Alianza Lima stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Atletico Grau show 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 5.

Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

Under 2.5 goals is rated 45% and under 3.5 66%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 79% and over 2.5 at 55%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 55%, best priced 1.70 at 1xBet.

BTTS yes stands at 44%. Alianza Lima score in 90% of simulations against a 10% clean sheet for Atletico Grau; Atletico Grau score in 48% while Alianza Lima shut them out 52% of the time.

Correct score: 2-0 leads at 13.7%, then 1-0 at 12.1% and 3-0 at 10.4%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Alianza Lima, full-time Alianza Lima leads at 50%. A goal before the break is rated 73%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.