AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction and best bet

The AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction leans to AZ Alkmaar: 60% against 20% for Groningen, with 20% left for the draw, in the Eredivisie on Sunday, 8 November 2026.

Expected goals are 2.32 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.28 for Groningen, a total of 3.60, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 66%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

The pick for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen is aZ Alkmaar to win, a 60% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.55 at 1xBet, which implies 65%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen.

For a safer line, aZ Alkmaar or draw covers 80% of outcomes at 1.16.

The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Over the last 5 matches AZ Alkmaar stand at 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Groningen show 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats in 5.

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

On the goal lines AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen reads 87% for over 1.5, 69% for over 2.5 and 49% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 31%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 69%; 1xBet pay 1.38.

The chance of both teams scoring is 66%, built from AZ Alkmaar scoring in 90% of runs and Groningen in 72%; clean sheets come at 28% for AZ Alkmaar and 10% for Groningen.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.4%).

With the top scoreline at 9.4%, correct score stays a long-odds market for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

Half-time / full-time: half-time AZ Alkmaar, full-time AZ Alkmaar is the top combination at 40%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 80%.