Liga MX
Guadalajara ChivasHomeDDWWW
1:0Half-time 0:0
NecaxaAwayDLLDL721711
Guadalajara Chivas winDrawNecaxa win
Guadalajara ChivasHomeDDWWWNecaxaAwayDLLDL- Kick-off Wed 21 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.73 2.70 : 1.03
- Favourite
- 72% Guadalajara Chivas
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 61% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.35 | 5.58 | 8.12 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.60 | 2.30 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Guadalajara Chivas to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Guadalajara Chivas price at 1.35, 1xBet lead the draw at 5.58 and 1xBet have Necaxa longest at 8.12.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 95.9%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.33 (1xBet) and under 2.5 3.25 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.60 (1xBet) and no 2.30 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
72%
Our prediction
Guadalajara Chivas to win
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw
89% chance1.09
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
71% chance1.33
BTTSBoth teams to score
61% chance1.60
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
89% chance1.13fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
9% chance11.11fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Guadalajara Chivas, full-time Guadalajara Chivas
50% chance1.99fair
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction, who wins and at what price
The Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction leans to Guadalajara Chivas: 72% against 11% for Necaxa, with 17% left for the draw, in the Liga MX on Wednesday, 21 October 2026.
Expected goals are 2.70 for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.03 for Necaxa, a total of 3.73, which puts over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 61%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Our main pick is guadalajara Chivas to win at 72%. At 1.35 with 1xBet the market prices it at 74%, against 72% from the model.
For a safer line, guadalajara Chivas or draw covers 89% of outcomes at 1.09.
The draw sits at only 17%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Form check: Guadalajara Chivas have won 3 of their last 5 with 8 scored and 4 conceded, Necaxa 0 of 5 scoring 4 and conceding 8.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa reads 89% for over 1.5, 71% for over 2.5 and 51% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 29%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 71%; 1xBet pay 1.33.
Both teams to score is 61%: Guadalajara Chivas find the net in 93% of simulated matches and Necaxa in 64%. Guadalajara Chivas keep a clean sheet 36% of the time and Necaxa 7%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa: 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8.7%) and 3-1 (8.1%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Guadalajara Chivas, full-time Guadalajara Chivas leads at 50%. A goal before the break is rated 81%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 72% / 17% / 11% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Guadalajara Chivas to win72%1.35
Draw17%5.58
Necaxa to win11%8.12
Guadalajara Chivas, draw no bet87%fair 1.15
Necaxa, draw no bet13%fair 7.52
Double chance
Guadalajara Chivas or draw89%1.09
Necaxa or draw28%3.31
Guadalajara Chivas or Necaxa (no draw)83%1.16
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals89%fair 1.13
Over 2.5 goals71%1.33
Over 3.5 goals51%fair 1.95
Over 4.5 goals32%fair 3.14
Under 1.5 goals11%fair 8.77
Under 2.5 goals29%3.25
Under 3.5 goals49%fair 2.05
BTTS
Both teams to score61%1.60
Not both teams to score39%2.30
Halves
First-half goal81%fair 1.23
Over 1.5 first-half goals50%fair 2.00
Second-half goal87%fair 1.15
Team goals
Guadalajara Chivas to score93%fair 1.07
Necaxa to score64%fair 1.56
Guadalajara Chivas clean sheet36%fair 2.80
Necaxa clean sheet7%fair 14.93
Guadalajara Chivas to win to nil33%fair 3.05
Necaxa to win to nil6%fair 16.13
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19%
2-08.7%
3-18.1%
3-07.9%
1-16.7%
1-06.5%
Half-time / full-time
Guadalajara Chivas / Guadalajara Chivas50.3%
Draw / Guadalajara Chivas18.4%
Draw / Draw8%
Necaxa / Necaxa6.6%
Draw / Necaxa4.3%
Questions about Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the best chance at 72%, with the draw at 17%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa correct score: what does the model say?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 71% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
The BTTS yes line is rated 61%. Guadalajara Chivas find the net in 93% of simulated matches and Necaxa in 64%.
When is Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa and where is the result shown?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa starts at 00:07 UTC on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.