CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction

Our CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction and pick

The CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction leans to Cruz Azul: 43% against 31% for CF Pachuca, with 26% left for the draw, in the Liga MX on Thursday, 22 October 2026.

Expected goals are 1.43 for CF Pachuca and 1.69 for Cruz Azul, a total of 3.12, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 64%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is cF Pachuca or Cruz Azul (no draw) at 74%. The best price in our comparison is 1.26 at 1xBet, which implies 79%, so the model sits 6 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul.

Form check: CF Pachuca have won 2 of their last 5 with 10 scored and 8 conceded, Cruz Azul 3 of 5 scoring 16 and conceding 8.

Goals forecast for CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 60%, over 3.5 at 38%; under 2.5 is 40% and under 3.5 is 62%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 60%, best priced 1.59 at 1xBet.

Both teams to score is 64%: CF Pachuca find the net in 76% of simulated matches and Cruz Azul in 82%. CF Pachuca keep a clean sheet 19% of the time and Cruz Azul 24%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (7.6%).

With the top scoreline at 10.7%, correct score stays a long-odds market for CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Cruz Azul, full-time Cruz Azul leads at 27%. A goal before the break is rated 75%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.