Liga MX
MonterreyHomeDWWLD
0:1Half-time 0:1
Guadalajara ChivasAwayDDWWW412831
Monterrey winDrawGuadalajara Chivas win
MonterreyHomeDWWLDGuadalajara ChivasAwayDDWWW- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.90 1.56 : 1.34
- Favourite
- 41% Monterrey
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 60% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.46 | 3.16 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.55 | 2.42 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Monterrey to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Monterrey price at 2.29, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.46 and 1xBet have Guadalajara Chivas longest at 3.16.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 96%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.85 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.00 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.55 (1xBet) and no 2.42 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
72%
Our prediction
Monterrey or Guadalajara Chivas (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
55% chance1.85
BTTSBoth teams to score
60% chance1.55
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
79% chance1.27fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.70fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Monterrey, full-time Monterrey
26% chance3.89fair
First halfFirst-half goal
73% chance1.37fair
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction and best bet
The Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction leans to Monterrey: 41% against 31% for Guadalajara Chivas, with 28% left for the draw, in the Liga MX on Sunday, 25 October 2026.
The goal expectancy is 2.90 in total, split 1.56 to Monterrey and 1.34 to Guadalajara Chivas. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 55% and both teams to score 60%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas is monterrey or Guadalajara Chivas (no draw), a 72% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.33 at 1xBet, which implies 75%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas.
Over the last 5 matches Monterrey stand at 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Guadalajara Chivas show 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 5.
How many goals in Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
On the goal lines Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas reads 79% for over 1.5, 55% for over 2.5 and 33% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 45%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; 1xBet pay 1.85.
Both teams to score is 60%: Monterrey find the net in 79% of simulated matches and Guadalajara Chivas in 74%. Monterrey keep a clean sheet 26% of the time and Guadalajara Chivas 21%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 11.5%, then 2-1 at 9% and 1-0 at 8.6%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Monterrey, full-time Monterrey leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 73%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Monterrey to win41%2.29
Draw28%3.46
Guadalajara Chivas to win31%3.16
Monterrey, draw no bet57%fair 1.75
Guadalajara Chivas, draw no bet43%fair 2.33
Double chance
Monterrey or draw69%1.38
Guadalajara Chivas or draw59%1.65
Monterrey or Guadalajara Chivas (no draw)72%1.33
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals79%fair 1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.85
Over 3.5 goals33%fair 3.03
Over 4.5 goals17%fair 5.95
Under 1.5 goals22%fair 4.65
Under 2.5 goals45%2.00
Under 3.5 goals67%fair 1.49
BTTS
Both teams to score60%1.55
Not both teams to score40%2.42
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.37
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.67
Second-half goal80%fair 1.25
Team goals
Monterrey to score79%fair 1.27
Guadalajara Chivas to score74%fair 1.36
Monterrey clean sheet26%fair 3.82
Guadalajara Chivas clean sheet21%fair 4.76
Monterrey to win to nil24%fair 4.15
Guadalajara Chivas to win to nil19%fair 5.18
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.5%
2-19%
1-08.6%
1-27.7%
0-17.4%
2-06.7%
Half-time / full-time
Monterrey / Monterrey25.7%
Guadalajara Chivas / Guadalajara Chivas19.1%
Draw / Monterrey14.3%
Draw / Draw14.1%
Draw / Guadalajara Chivas11.5%
Questions about Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas
Who will win Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The model gives Monterrey the best chance at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What scoreline is most likely in Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 55% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The BTTS yes line is rated 60%. Monterrey find the net in 79% of simulated matches and Guadalajara Chivas in 74%.
When do Monterrey play Guadalajara Chivas?
Kick-off is 02:00 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.