FKF Premier League
Mara SugarHomeDWDD
2:1Half-time 2:0
Mombasa EliteAwayLLDLL502921
Mara Sugar winDrawMombasa Elite win
Mara SugarHomeDWDDMombasa EliteAwayLLDLL- Kick-off Mon 19 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.19 1.37 : 0.82
- Favourite
- 50% Mara Sugar
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 43% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.02 | 4.43 | 2.33 | 1.51 | 2.09 | 1.63 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Mara Sugar to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Mara Sugar price at 1.81, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.02 and 1xBet have Mombasa Elite longest at 4.43.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.1%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.33 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.51 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.09 (1xBet) and no 1.63 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
79%
Our prediction
Mara Sugar or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
63% chance1.51
BTTSNot both teams to score
57% chance1.63
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
64% chance1.56fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
15% chance6.54fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Mara Sugar, full-time Mara Sugar
30% chance3.37fair
First halfFirst-half goal
63% chance1.59fair
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite prediction
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite prediction and best bet
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite prediction for the FKF Premier League on Monday, 19 October 2026: the model makes Mara Sugar a narrow favourite at 50%, with the draw at 29% and Mombasa Elite at 21%.
Mara Sugar are expected to score 1.37 and Mombasa Elite 0.82, so the total line is 2.19 goals; over 2.5 lands at 37% and BTTS at 43%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite is mara Sugar or draw, a 79% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.13 at 1xBet, which implies 88%, so the model sits 10 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite.
Mara Sugar average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 4, Mombasa Elite 0.4 and 1.6 across 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 64%, over 2.5 at 37%, over 3.5 at 18%; under 2.5 is 63% and under 3.5 is 82%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 63%, best priced 1.51 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 43%, built from Mara Sugar scoring in 75% of runs and Mombasa Elite in 56%; clean sheets come at 44% for Mara Sugar and 25% for Mombasa Elite.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (12.6%) and 0-0 (11.2%).
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Mara Sugar, full-time Mara Sugar leads at 30%. A goal before the break is rated 63%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite
The grid built from 1.37 and 0.82 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Mara Sugar to win50%1.81
Draw29%3.02
Mombasa Elite to win21%4.43
Mara Sugar, draw no bet70%fair 1.43
Mombasa Elite, draw no bet30%fair 3.33
Double chance
Mara Sugar or draw79%1.13
Mombasa Elite or draw51%1.80
Mara Sugar or Mombasa Elite (no draw)71%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals89%fair 1.13
Over 1.5 goals64%fair 1.56
Over 2.5 goals37%2.33
Over 3.5 goals18%fair 5.59
Over 4.5 goals7%fair 14.08
Under 1.5 goals36%fair 2.80
Under 2.5 goals63%1.51
Under 3.5 goals82%fair 1.22
BTTS
Both teams to score43%2.09
Not both teams to score57%1.63
Halves
First-half goal63%fair 1.59
Over 1.5 first-half goals26%fair 3.86
Second-half goal70%fair 1.43
Team goals
Mara Sugar to score75%fair 1.34
Mombasa Elite to score56%fair 1.79
Mara Sugar clean sheet44%fair 2.27
Mombasa Elite clean sheet25%fair 3.94
Mara Sugar to win to nil41%fair 2.47
Mombasa Elite to win to nil20%fair 5.13
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-015.3%
1-112.6%
0-011.2%
2-010.5%
0-19.2%
2-18.6%
Half-time / full-time
Mara Sugar / Mara Sugar29.7%
Draw / Draw19%
Draw / Mara Sugar18.1%
Mombasa Elite / Mombasa Elite12.1%
Draw / Mombasa Elite9.2%
Questions about Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite
Mara Sugar or Mombasa Elite: which side does the model back?
The model gives Mara Sugar the best chance at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 15.3%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 37% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite?
The BTTS yes line is rated 43%. Mara Sugar find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Mombasa Elite in 56%.
When is Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite and where is the result shown?
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite starts at 11:00 UTC on Monday, 19 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.