Lazio vs Cagliari prediction

Lazio vs Cagliari prediction, who wins and at what price

Lazio vs Cagliari prediction for the Serie A on Sunday, 1 November 2026: the model makes Lazio the clear favourite at 66%, with the draw at 21% and Cagliari at 13%.

Expected goals are 2.02 for Lazio and 0.81 for Cagliari, a total of 2.83, which puts over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 51%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is lazio to win at 66%. The best price in our comparison is 1.52 at 1xBet, which implies 66%, so the model sits 0 points above the market.

Lazio or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 87% chance, priced 1.14.

The draw sits at only 21%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Form check: Lazio have won 5 of their last 5 with 16 scored and 5 conceded, Cagliari 0 of 5 scoring 4 and conceding 13.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Lazio vs Cagliari

Under 2.5 goals is rated 48% and under 3.5 69%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 77% and over 2.5 at 52%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 52%; 1xBet pay 1.86.

BTTS yes stands at 51%. Lazio score in 87% of simulations against a 13% clean sheet for Cagliari; Cagliari score in 56% while Lazio shut them out 45% of the time.

The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, followed by 1-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.8%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 12% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Lazio, full-time Lazio leads at 43%. A goal before the break is rated 72%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.