Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction

Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction, who wins and at what price

The Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Serie A on Thursday, 29 October 2026 gives Fiorentina a 40% chance, Atalanta 35% and the draw 25%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.

Expected goals are 1.77 for Fiorentina and 1.64 for Atalanta, a total of 3.41, which puts over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 68%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Fiorentina vs Atalanta is fiorentina or Atalanta (no draw), a 75% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.33 at 1xBet, which implies 75%, so the model sits 0 points below the market.

Over the last 5 matches Fiorentina stand at 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Atalanta show 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 5.

Goals forecast for Fiorentina vs Atalanta with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 85%, over 2.5 at 66%, over 3.5 at 44%; under 2.5 is 34% and under 3.5 is 56%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 66%, best priced 1.49 at Melbet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 68%, built from Fiorentina scoring in 83% of runs and Atalanta in 81%; clean sheets come at 19% for Fiorentina and 17% for Atalanta.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Fiorentina vs Atalanta: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-1 (8.5%) and 1-2 (7.9%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Fiorentina, full-time Fiorentina is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 78%.