Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal prediction

Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal prediction and best bet

Erbil host Ghaz Al Shamal on Friday, 30 October 2026 in the Iraqi League, and the model has Erbil at 59%, the draw at 26% and Ghaz Al Shamal at 16%: that is the Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal prediction in one line.

Expected goals are 1.57 for Erbil and 0.70 for Ghaz Al Shamal, a total of 2.27, which puts over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 41%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

Our main pick is erbil to win at 59%. The best price in our comparison is 1.60 at BC.Game, which implies 63%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

For a safer line, erbil or draw covers 84% of outcomes at 1.10.

Over the last 5 matches Erbil stand at 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Ghaz Al Shamal show 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in 5.

A low-scoring Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Under 2.5 goals is rated 61% and under 3.5 81%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 66% and over 2.5 at 39%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 61%, best priced 1.65 at BC.Game.

Both teams to score is 41%: Erbil find the net in 79% of simulated matches and Ghaz Al Shamal in 50%. Erbil keep a clean sheet 50% of the time and Ghaz Al Shamal 21%.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal: 1-0 (16.2%), 2-0 (12.7%) and 1-1 (11.4%).

Half-time / full-time: half-time Erbil, full-time Erbil is the top combination at 36%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 64%.