Zakho vs Erbil prediction

Zakho vs Erbil prediction and best bet

The Zakho vs Erbil prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Iraqi League on Thursday, 22 October 2026 gives Zakho a 31% chance, Erbil 38% and the draw 31%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.

Expected goals are 1.07 for Zakho and 1.20 for Erbil, a total of 2.27, which puts over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 49%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is erbil or draw at 69%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.30. That price implies 77%, 8 points over the model figure.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

A 31% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.

Form check: Zakho have won 1 of their last 5 with 2 scored and 5 conceded, Erbil 1 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 5.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Zakho vs Erbil

On the goal lines Zakho vs Erbil reads 66% for over 1.5, 39% for over 2.5 and 20% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 61%.

Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 61%; 1xBet pay 1.60.

The chance of both teams scoring is 49%, built from Zakho scoring in 66% of runs and Erbil in 70%; clean sheets come at 30% for Zakho and 34% for Erbil.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 13.3%, then 0-1 at 12.4% and 1-0 at 11.1%.

Even the leading scoreline holds only 13.3% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Erbil, full-time Erbil leads at 23%. A goal before the break is rated 64%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.