Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi prediction

Our Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi prediction and pick

Negelle Arsi are marginally ahead in the Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi prediction, rated 37% to win this Ethiopia Premier League match on Friday, 30 October 2026. Sheger Ketema sit at 28% and the draw at 36%.

The goal expectancy is 1.77 in total, split 0.80 to Sheger Ketema and 0.97 to Negelle Arsi. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 26% and both teams to score 36%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Negelle Arsi or draw is the main selection, rated 72%. The best price in our comparison is 1.33 at Betwinner, which implies 75%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

A 36% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.

Sheger Ketema average 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Negelle Arsi 1.4 and 0.4 across 5.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 53%, over 2.5 at 26%, over 3.5 at 10%; under 2.5 is 74% and under 3.5 is 90%.

Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 74%; 1xBet pay 1.31.

Both teams to score is 36%: Sheger Ketema find the net in 55% of simulated matches and Negelle Arsi in 62%. Sheger Ketema keep a clean sheet 38% of the time and Negelle Arsi 45%.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.

The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 17%, followed by 0-1 (16.5%) and 1-0 (13.6%).

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Draw, full-time Draw leads at 25%. A goal before the break is rated 55%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.