Ethiopia Premier League
Ethiopia BunnaHomeLWLLD
0:3Half-time 0:2
Negelle ArsiAwayDDWWW353629
Ethiopia Bunna winDrawNegelle Arsi win
Ethiopia BunnaHomeLWLLDNegelle ArsiAwayDDWWW- Kick-off Wed 21 Oct
- Expected goals
- 1.78 0.94 : 0.84
- Favourite
- 35% Ethiopia Bunna
- Over 2.5 goals
- 26% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 37% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.55 | 2.59 | 3.02 | 2.97 | 1.30 | 2.34 | 1.51 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Ethiopia Bunna to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Ethiopia Bunna price at 2.55, 1xBet lead the draw at 2.59 and 1xBet have Negelle Arsi longest at 3.02.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.1%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.97 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.30 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.34 (1xBet) and no 1.51 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
70%
Our prediction
Ethiopia Bunna or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
74% chance1.30
BTTSNot both teams to score
63% chance1.51
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
53% chance1.88fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-0
17% chance5.92fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Draw, full-time Draw
25% chance4.05fair
First halfFirst-half goal
55% chance1.81fair
Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi prediction
Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi prediction, who wins and at what price
Nothing separates the sides in the Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi prediction for Wednesday, 21 October 2026: 35% home, 36% draw and 30% away in the Ethiopia Premier League. A match this tight rewards the double chance and the goal markets more than a straight pick.
The goal expectancy is 1.78 in total, split 0.94 to Ethiopia Bunna and 0.84 to Negelle Arsi. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 26% and both teams to score 37%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi is ethiopia Bunna or draw, a 70% chance. At 1.28 with 1xBet the market prices it at 78%, against 70% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
A 36% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
Form check: Ethiopia Bunna have won 1 of their last 5 with 2 scored and 6 conceded, Negelle Arsi 3 of 5 scoring 7 and conceding 2.
A low-scoring Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 74% and under 3.5 89%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 53% and over 2.5 at 26%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 74%; 1xBet pay 1.30.
Both teams to score is 37%: Ethiopia Bunna find the net in 61% of simulated matches and Negelle Arsi in 57%. Ethiopia Bunna keep a clean sheet 43% of the time and Negelle Arsi 39%.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
Correct score: 0-0 leads at 16.9%, then 1-0 at 15.9% and 0-1 at 14.2%.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Draw, full-time Draw leads at 25%. A goal before the break is rated 55%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Ethiopia Bunna to win35%2.55
Draw36%2.59
Negelle Arsi to win30%3.02
Ethiopia Bunna, draw no bet54%fair 1.85
Negelle Arsi, draw no bet46%fair 2.17
Double chance
Ethiopia Bunna or draw70%1.28
Negelle Arsi or draw65%1.39
Ethiopia Bunna or Negelle Arsi (no draw)64%1.38
Goals
Over 0.5 goals83%fair 1.20
Over 1.5 goals53%fair 1.88
Over 2.5 goals26%2.97
Over 3.5 goals11%fair 9.43
Over 4.5 goals4%fair 28.57
Under 1.5 goals47%fair 2.13
Under 2.5 goals74%1.30
Under 3.5 goals89%fair 1.12
BTTS
Both teams to score37%2.34
Not both teams to score63%1.51
Halves
First-half goal55%fair 1.81
Over 1.5 first-half goals19%fair 5.21
Second-half goal62%fair 1.60
Team goals
Ethiopia Bunna to score61%fair 1.64
Negelle Arsi to score57%fair 1.76
Ethiopia Bunna clean sheet43%fair 2.31
Negelle Arsi clean sheet39%fair 2.56
Ethiopia Bunna to win to nil32%fair 3.13
Negelle Arsi to win to nil27%fair 3.68
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.06
Even number of goals51%fair 1.95
Most likely scores
0-016.9%
1-015.9%
0-114.2%
1-113.3%
2-07.5%
2-16.3%
Half-time / full-time
Draw / Draw24.7%
Ethiopia Bunna / Ethiopia Bunna20.2%
Negelle Arsi / Negelle Arsi16.8%
Draw / Ethiopia Bunna14.8%
Draw / Negelle Arsi12.9%
Questions about Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi
Ethiopia Bunna or Negelle Arsi: which side does the model back?
The model gives Ethiopia Bunna the best chance at 35%, with the draw at 36%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi?
0-0 is the most likely scoreline at 16.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 26%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi?
The BTTS yes line is rated 37%. Ethiopia Bunna find the net in 61% of simulated matches and Negelle Arsi in 57%.
When do Ethiopia Bunna play Negelle Arsi?
Kick-off is 12:00 UTC on Wednesday, 21 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.