Negelle Arsi vs Adama Kenema prediction

Negelle Arsi vs Adama Kenema prediction and best bet

The Negelle Arsi vs Adama Kenema prediction leans to Negelle Arsi: 45% against 23% for Adama Kenema, with 33% left for the draw, in the Ethiopia Premier League on Monday, 26 October 2026.

Negelle Arsi are expected to score 1.07 and Adama Kenema 0.66, so the total line is 1.73 goals; over 2.5 lands at 25% and BTTS at 31%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Negelle Arsi vs Adama Kenema is negelle Arsi or draw, a 77% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.16 at 1xBet, which implies 86%, so the model sits 9 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Negelle Arsi vs Adama Kenema.

The draw is live at 33%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.

Form check: Negelle Arsi have won 3 of their last 5 with 7 scored and 2 conceded, Adama Kenema 1 of 5 scoring 2 and conceding 2.

A low-scoring Negelle Arsi vs Adama Kenema? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 52%, over 2.5 at 25%, over 3.5 at 10%; under 2.5 is 75% and under 3.5 is 90%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 75%.

The chance of both teams scoring is 31%, built from Negelle Arsi scoring in 66% of runs and Adama Kenema in 48%; clean sheets come at 52% for Negelle Arsi and 34% for Adama Kenema.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 69%.

Correct score: 1-0 leads at 19%, then 0-0 at 17.7% and 1-1 at 12.5%.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Negelle Arsi, full-time Negelle Arsi leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 54%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.