Ethiopia Premier League
Fasil KetemaHomeDDLD
2:2Half-time 0:0
BahardarAwayWLWD233344
Fasil Ketema winDrawBahardar win
Fasil KetemaHomeDDLDBahardarAwayWLWD- Kick-off Sat 31 Oct
- Expected goals
- 1.69 0.66 : 1.03
- Favourite
- 44% Bahardar
- Over 2.5 goals
- 24% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 31% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
77%
Our prediction
Bahardar or draw
1.30fair
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
76% chance1.31fair
BTTSNot both teams to score
69% chance1.45fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
50% chance1.98fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-1
19% chance5.26fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Draw, full-time Draw
26% chance3.91fair
First halfFirst-half goal
53% chance1.88fair
Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar prediction
Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar prediction, who wins and at what price
Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar prediction for the Ethiopia Premier League on Saturday, 31 October 2026: the model makes Bahardar marginally ahead at 44%, with the draw at 33% and Fasil Ketema at 23%.
The goal expectancy is 1.69 in total, split 0.66 to Fasil Ketema and 1.03 to Bahardar. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 24% and both teams to score 31%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Bahardar or draw is the main selection, rated 77%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
The draw is live at 33%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.
Over the last 4 matches Fasil Ketema stand at 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Bahardar show 2 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats in 4.
A low-scoring Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar reads 50% for over 1.5, 24% for over 2.5 and 9% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 76%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 76%.
BTTS yes stands at 31%. Fasil Ketema score in 48% of simulations against a 52% clean sheet for Bahardar; Bahardar score in 64% while Fasil Ketema shut them out 36% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 69%.
The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 19%, followed by 0-0 (18.5%) and 1-1 (12.5%).
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Draw, full-time Draw leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 53%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar
The grid built from 0.66 and 1.03 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Fasil Ketema to win23%fair 4.33
Draw33%fair 2.99
Bahardar to win44%fair 2.30
Fasil Ketema, draw no bet35%fair 2.88
Bahardar, draw no bet65%fair 1.53
Double chance
Fasil Ketema or draw57%fair 1.77
Bahardar or draw77%fair 1.30
Fasil Ketema or Bahardar (no draw)67%fair 1.50
Goals
Over 0.5 goals82%fair 1.23
Over 1.5 goals50%fair 1.98
Over 2.5 goals24%fair 4.20
Over 3.5 goals9%fair 10.87
Over 4.5 goals3%fair 34.48
Under 1.5 goals50%fair 2.02
Under 2.5 goals76%fair 1.31
Under 3.5 goals91%fair 1.10
BTTS
Both teams to score31%fair 3.24
Not both teams to score69%fair 1.45
Halves
First-half goal53%fair 1.88
Over 1.5 first-half goals18%fair 5.65
Second-half goal61%fair 1.65
Team goals
Fasil Ketema to score48%fair 2.07
Bahardar to score64%fair 1.56
Fasil Ketema clean sheet36%fair 2.80
Bahardar clean sheet52%fair 1.93
Fasil Ketema to win to nil21%fair 4.69
Bahardar to win to nil40%fair 2.50
Odd or even
Odd number of goals48%fair 2.07
Even number of goals52%fair 1.93
Most likely scores
0-119%
0-018.5%
1-112.5%
1-012.2%
0-29.8%
1-26.5%
Half-time / full-time
Draw / Draw25.6%
Bahardar / Bahardar24.8%
Draw / Bahardar17.6%
Fasil Ketema / Fasil Ketema12.2%
Draw / Fasil Ketema10.1%
Questions about Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar
Who is favourite in Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
The model gives Bahardar the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 19%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 24% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
The BTTS yes line is rated 31%. Fasil Ketema find the net in 48% of simulated matches and Bahardar in 64%.
When do Fasil Ketema play Bahardar?
Kick-off is 12:00 UTC on Saturday, 31 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.