Championship
Round 15 Saturday, 7 November 2026
Kick-off
BirminghamHomeWWWLW
Sat 7 Nov
SwanseaAwayWWLLW482626
Birmingham winDrawSwansea win
Championship
Round 15 Saturday, 7 November 2026
Kick-off
BirminghamHomeWWWLWSwanseaAwayWWLLW- Kick-off Sat 7 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.71 1.60 : 1.11
- Favourite
- 48% Birmingham
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Best odds for Birmingham vs Swansea
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 22Bet | 1.98 | 3.54 | 3.54 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.84 | 1.89 | 1.69 | 2.00 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.98 | 3.54 | 3.54 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.98 | 3.54 | 3.54 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.95 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 1.81 | 1.90 | 1.72 | 1.97 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Birmingham to win partner prices
BC.Game pay the best Birmingham price at 2.00, Stake lead the draw at 3.55 and Stake have Swansea longest at 3.65.
The best-price payout across the three results is 94.7%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.85 (22Bet) and under 2.5 1.90 (Stake); both teams to score yes pays 1.72 (Stake) and no 2.04 (Betwinner).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
74%
Our prediction
Birmingham or Swansea (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
50% chance1.85
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.72
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
75% chance1.33fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.47fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Birmingham, full-time Birmingham
30% chance3.37fair
First halfFirst-half goal
71% chance1.42fair
Birmingham vs Swansea prediction
Birmingham vs Swansea prediction, who wins and at what price
Birmingham host Swansea on Saturday, 7 November 2026 in the Championship, and the model has Birmingham at 48%, the draw at 26% and Swansea at 26%: that is the Birmingham vs Swansea prediction in one line.
Birmingham are expected to score 1.60 and Swansea 1.11, so the total line is 2.71 goals; over 2.5 lands at 50% and BTTS at 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is birmingham or Swansea (no draw) at 74%. At 1.27 with BC.Game the market prices it at 79%, against 74% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Birmingham stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Swansea show 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Birmingham vs Swansea
On the goal lines Birmingham vs Swansea reads 75% for over 1.5, 50% for over 2.5 and 29% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 50%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 50%, best priced 1.85 at 22Bet.
BTTS yes stands at 55%. Birmingham score in 80% of simulations against a 20% clean sheet for Swansea; Swansea score in 67% while Birmingham shut them out 33% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%, followed by 1-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Birmingham, full-time Birmingham leads at 30%. A goal before the break is rated 71%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Birmingham vs Swansea
The grid built from 1.60 and 1.11 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Birmingham to win48%2.00
Draw26%3.55
Swansea to win26%3.65
Birmingham, draw no bet65%fair 1.54
Swansea, draw no bet35%fair 2.87
Double chance
Birmingham or draw74%1.27
Swansea or draw52%1.80
Birmingham or Swansea (no draw)74%1.27
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals75%fair 1.33
Over 2.5 goals50%1.85
Over 3.5 goals29%fair 3.47
Over 4.5 goals14%fair 7.19
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 4.05
Under 2.5 goals50%1.90
Under 3.5 goals71%fair 1.40
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.72
Not both teams to score45%2.04
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.42
Over 1.5 first-half goals34%fair 2.91
Second-half goal78%fair 1.29
Team goals
Birmingham to score80%fair 1.25
Swansea to score67%fair 1.49
Birmingham clean sheet33%fair 3.03
Swansea clean sheet20%fair 4.95
Birmingham to win to nil30%fair 3.30
Swansea to win to nil19%fair 5.38
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.8%
1-010.6%
2-19.5%
2-08.5%
0-17.4%
0-06.7%
Half-time / full-time
Birmingham / Birmingham29.7%
Draw / Birmingham16.3%
Draw / Draw15%
Swansea / Swansea14.9%
Draw / Swansea9.8%
Questions about Birmingham vs Swansea
Birmingham or Swansea: which side does the model back?
The model gives Birmingham the best chance at 48%, with the draw at 26%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Birmingham vs Swansea correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 50%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Swansea?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Birmingham find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Swansea in 67%.
When is Birmingham vs Swansea and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 15:00 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.