Derby vs Bolton prediction

Derby vs Bolton prediction, who wins and at what price

The Derby vs Bolton prediction leans to Derby: 43% against 32% for Bolton, with 26% left for the draw, in the Championship on Friday, 6 November 2026.

Derby are expected to score 1.58 and Bolton 1.34, so the total line is 2.92 goals; over 2.5 lands at 55% and BTTS at 60%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Derby or Bolton (no draw) is the main selection, rated 74%. The best price in our comparison is 1.27 at Stake, which implies 79%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Derby vs Bolton.

Derby average 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across their last 5, Bolton 1.4 and 2.2 across 5.

Derby vs Bolton goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 79%, over 2.5 at 55%, over 3.5 at 34%; under 2.5 is 45% and under 3.5 is 67%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; Melbet pay 1.72.

The chance of both teams scoring is 60%, built from Derby scoring in 79% of runs and Bolton in 74%; clean sheets come at 26% for Derby and 21% for Bolton.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Derby vs Bolton: 1-1 (11.4%), 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8.5%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.4% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Derby, full-time Derby leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 73%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.