Primera A
Atletico NacionalHomeWLWWW
2:1Half-time 0:1
Independiente MedellinAwayLLLLW562420
Atletico Nacional winDrawIndependiente Medellin win
Atletico NacionalHomeWLWWWIndependiente MedellinAwayLLLLW- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.87 1.85 : 1.02
- Favourite
- 56% Atletico Nacional
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.33 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 2.06 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.61 | 4.08 | 5.35 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.77 | 2.05 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.54 | 3.90 | 5.20 | 1.68 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 1.99 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.61 | 4.08 | 5.35 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.77 | 2.05 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.61 | 4.08 | 5.35 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.77 | 2.05 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.59 | 4.00 | 4.90 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 1.99 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Atletico Nacional to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin prediction: Atletico Nacional 1.73 (1xBet), draw 4.08 (Betwinner), Independiente Medellin 5.35 (Betwinner).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 99%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.74 (Betwinner) and under 2.5 2.10 (Betwinner); both teams to score yes pays 1.77 (Melbet) and no 2.06 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
56%
Our prediction
Atletico Nacional to win
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw
80% chance1.18
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
55% chance1.74
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.77
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
78% chance1.28fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.35fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Atletico Nacional, full-time Atletico Nacional
36% chance2.79fair
Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin head to head
1Atletico Nacional wins
0Draws
0Independiente Medellin wins
- 15 Oct 26Atletico Nacional3:2Independiente Medellin
1 meeting since coverage began, 5 goals in total: Atletico Nacional scored 3, Independiente Medellin scored 2.
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin prediction
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin prediction, who wins and at what price
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin prediction for the Primera A on Sunday, 25 October 2026: the model makes Atletico Nacional a narrow favourite at 56%, with the draw at 24% and Independiente Medellin at 20%.
The goal expectancy is 2.87 in total, split 1.85 to Atletico Nacional and 1.02 to Independiente Medellin. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 55% and both teams to score 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin is atletico Nacional to win, a 56% chance. At 1.73 with 1xBet the market prices it at 58%, against 56% from the model.
Atletico Nacional or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 80% chance, priced 1.18.
Atletico Nacional average 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across their last 5, Independiente Medellin 1.2 and 2.2 across 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 78%, over 2.5 at 55%, over 3.5 at 32%; under 2.5 is 46% and under 3.5 is 68%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; Betwinner pay 1.74.
Both teams to score is 55%: Atletico Nacional find the net in 84% of simulated matches and Independiente Medellin in 64%. Atletico Nacional keep a clean sheet 36% of the time and Independiente Medellin 16%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.7%, then 1-0 at 10.5% and 2-1 at 9.9%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Atletico Nacional, full-time Atletico Nacional is the top combination at 36%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.
All markets, Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
The grid built from 1.85 and 1.02 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win56%1.73
Draw24%4.08
Independiente Medellin to win20%5.35
Atletico Nacional, draw no bet74%fair 1.35
Independiente Medellin, draw no bet26%fair 3.83
Double chance
Atletico Nacional or draw80%1.18
Independiente Medellin or draw44%2.31
Atletico Nacional or Independiente Medellin (no draw)76%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals78%fair 1.28
Over 2.5 goals55%1.74
Over 3.5 goals32%fair 3.09
Over 4.5 goals16%fair 6.13
Under 1.5 goals22%fair 4.57
Under 2.5 goals46%2.10
Under 3.5 goals68%fair 1.48
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.77
Not both teams to score45%2.06
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.38
Over 1.5 first-half goals37%fair 2.70
Second-half goal79%fair 1.26
Team goals
Atletico Nacional to score84%fair 1.19
Independiente Medellin to score64%fair 1.56
Atletico Nacional clean sheet36%fair 2.77
Independiente Medellin clean sheet16%fair 6.37
Atletico Nacional to win to nil33%fair 3.01
Independiente Medellin to win to nil15%fair 6.90
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-110.7%
1-010.5%
2-19.9%
2-09.7%
3-16.1%
3-06%
Half-time / full-time
Atletico Nacional / Atletico Nacional35.9%
Draw / Atletico Nacional17.9%
Draw / Draw13.3%
Independiente Medellin / Independiente Medellin11.4%
Draw / Independiente Medellin7.8%
Questions about Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
Who is favourite in Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
The model gives Atletico Nacional the best chance at 56%, with the draw at 24%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 55% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Atletico Nacional find the net in 84% of simulated matches and Independiente Medellin in 64%.
When do Atletico Nacional play Independiente Medellin?
Kick-off is 23:10 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.