Primera A
Independiente MedellinHomeLLLLW
0:2Half-time 0:1
Once CaldasAwayWWDDW492724
Independiente Medellin winDrawOnce Caldas win
Independiente MedellinHomeLLLLWOnce CaldasAwayWWDDW- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.68 1.61 : 1.07
- Favourite
- 49% Independiente Medellin
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.38 | 3.77 | 1.87 | 1.86 | 1.73 | 2.00 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Independiente Medellin to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas are 1.93 for Independiente Medellin at 1xBet, 3.38 for the draw at 1xBet and 3.77 for Once Caldas at 1xBet.
The best-price payout across the three results is 92.7%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.87 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.86 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.73 (1xBet) and no 2.00 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
76%
Our prediction
Independiente Medellin or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
50% chance1.86
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.73
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
75% chance1.34fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.47fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Independiente Medellin, full-time Independiente Medellin
31% chance3.27fair
First halfFirst-half goal
70% chance1.43fair
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas prediction
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas prediction, who wins and at what price
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas prediction for the Primera A on Sunday, 18 October 2026: the model makes Independiente Medellin a narrow favourite at 49%, with the draw at 27% and Once Caldas at 24%.
The goal expectancy is 2.68 in total, split 1.61 to Independiente Medellin and 1.07 to Once Caldas. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 50% and both teams to score 54%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Our main pick is independiente Medellin or draw at 76%. At 1.23 with 1xBet the market prices it at 81%, against 76% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas.
Form check: Independiente Medellin have won 1 of their last 5 with 6 scored and 11 conceded, Once Caldas 3 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 2.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 75%, over 2.5 at 50%, over 3.5 at 28%; under 2.5 is 50% and under 3.5 is 72%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 50%, best priced 1.86 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 54%: Independiente Medellin find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Once Caldas in 66%. Independiente Medellin keep a clean sheet 34% of the time and Once Caldas 20%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas: 1-1 (11.8%), 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Independiente Medellin, full-time Independiente Medellin is the top combination at 31%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 70%.
All markets, Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 49% / 27% / 24% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win49%1.93
Draw27%3.38
Once Caldas to win24%3.77
Independiente Medellin, draw no bet67%fair 1.49
Once Caldas, draw no bet33%fair 3.02
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw76%1.23
Once Caldas or draw51%1.78
Independiente Medellin or Once Caldas (no draw)73%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals75%fair 1.34
Over 2.5 goals50%1.87
Over 3.5 goals28%fair 3.56
Over 4.5 goals13%fair 7.46
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 3.97
Under 2.5 goals50%1.86
Under 3.5 goals72%fair 1.39
BTTS
Both teams to score54%1.73
Not both teams to score46%2.00
Halves
First-half goal70%fair 1.43
Over 1.5 first-half goals34%fair 2.94
Second-half goal77%fair 1.30
Team goals
Independiente Medellin to score80%fair 1.25
Once Caldas to score66%fair 1.52
Independiente Medellin clean sheet34%fair 2.92
Once Caldas clean sheet20%fair 5.00
Independiente Medellin to win to nil32%fair 3.16
Once Caldas to win to nil18%fair 5.43
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.8%
1-011%
2-19.5%
2-08.9%
0-17.3%
0-06.9%
Half-time / full-time
Independiente Medellin / Independiente Medellin30.6%
Draw / Independiente Medellin16.7%
Draw / Draw15.1%
Once Caldas / Once Caldas14.2%
Draw / Once Caldas9.5%
Questions about Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
Who is favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
The model gives Independiente Medellin the best chance at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What scoreline is most likely in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.8%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 50% backs the same picture with less variance.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Independiente Medellin find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Once Caldas in 66%.
What time does Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas kick off?
Kick-off is 01:10 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.