Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar prediction

Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar prediction and best bet

Independiente Medellin host Alianza Valledupar on Sunday, 1 November 2026 in the Primera A, and the model has Independiente Medellin at 64%, the draw at 22% and Alianza Valledupar at 14%: that is the Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar prediction in one line.

The goal expectancy is 2.77 in total, split 1.95 to Independiente Medellin and 0.82 to Alianza Valledupar. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 52% and both teams to score 49%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar is independiente Medellin to win, a 64% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.62 at 22Bet, which implies 62%, so the model sits 2 points above the market.

A 3% edge on a flat stake is the margin here, so the selection qualifies as value and not only as the likely result.

For a safer line, independiente Medellin or draw covers 86% of outcomes at 1.14.

Independiente Medellin average 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across their last 5, Alianza Valledupar 1.0 and 1.0 across 5.

Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

On the goal lines Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar reads 76% for over 1.5, 52% for over 2.5 and 30% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 48%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 52%; 22Bet pay 2.01.

BTTS yes stands at 49%. Independiente Medellin score in 86% of simulations against a 14% clean sheet for Alianza Valledupar; Alianza Valledupar score in 56% while Independiente Medellin shut them out 44% of the time.

Correct score: 1-0 leads at 12.2%, then 2-0 at 11.9% and 1-1 at 10%.

With the top scoreline at 12.2%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Independiente Medellin, full-time Independiente Medellin is the top combination at 41%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.