Uganda Premier League
NECHomeDWLWW
5:1Half-time 2:1
NtugasazeAwayLWLLD76168
NEC winDrawNtugasaze win
NECHomeDWLWWNtugasazeAwayLWLLD- Kick-off Tue 27 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.94 2.33 : 0.61
- Favourite
- 76% NEC
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 42% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
NEC vs Ntugasaze odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.21 | 4.95 | 12.40 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 2.18 | 1.58 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.28 | 5.69 | 8.27 | 1.30 | 3.25 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.19 | 6.20 | 11.00 | - | - | - | - | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.28 | 5.69 | 8.27 | 1.30 | 3.25 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.28 | 5.69 | 8.27 | 1.30 | 3.25 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
NEC to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the NEC vs Ntugasaze prediction: NEC 1.28 (Betwinner), draw 6.20 (BC.Game), Ntugasaze 12.40 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 97.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.64 (1xBet) and under 2.5 3.25 (Melbet); both teams to score yes pays 2.18 (1xBet) and no 2.04 (22Bet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
76%
Our prediction
NEC to win
Double chanceNEC or draw
92% chance1.04
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
56% chance1.64
BTTSNot both teams to score
58% chance2.04
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
79% chance1.26fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-0
14% chance6.94fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time NEC, full-time NEC
52% chance1.92fair
NEC vs Ntugasaze prediction
NEC vs Ntugasaze prediction, who wins and at what price
NEC vs Ntugasaze prediction for the Uganda Premier League on Tuesday, 27 October 2026: the model makes NEC the clear favourite at 76%, with the draw at 16% and Ntugasaze at 9%.
Expected goals are 2.33 for NEC and 0.61 for Ntugasaze, a total of 2.94, which puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 42%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
NEC to win is the main selection, rated 76%. At 1.28 with Betwinner the market prices it at 78%, against 76% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on NEC vs Ntugasaze.
For a safer line, nEC or draw covers 92% of outcomes at 1.04.
The draw sits at only 16%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Form check: NEC have won 3 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 3 conceded, Ntugasaze 1 of 5 scoring 3 and conceding 11.
How many goals in NEC vs Ntugasaze? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Under 2.5 goals is rated 44% and under 3.5 66%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 79% and over 2.5 at 56%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 56%; 1xBet pay 1.64.
The chance of both teams scoring is 42%, built from NEC scoring in 90% of runs and Ntugasaze in 46%; clean sheets come at 54% for NEC and 10% for Ntugasaze.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 58%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for NEC vs Ntugasaze: 2-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.3%) and 3-0 (11.1%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time NEC, full-time NEC is the top combination at 52%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.
Every market rated for NEC vs Ntugasaze
The grid built from 2.33 and 0.61 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
NEC to win76%1.28
Draw16%6.20
Ntugasaze to win9%12.40
NEC, draw no bet90%fair 1.11
Ntugasaze, draw no bet10%fair 9.90
Double chance
NEC or draw92%1.04
Ntugasaze or draw24%3.97
NEC or Ntugasaze (no draw)84%1.10
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals79%fair 1.26
Over 2.5 goals56%1.64
Over 3.5 goals34%fair 2.95
Over 4.5 goals18%fair 5.71
Under 1.5 goals21%fair 4.81
Under 2.5 goals44%3.25
Under 3.5 goals66%fair 1.51
BTTS
Both teams to score42%2.18
Not both teams to score58%2.04
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.36
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.62
Second-half goal80%fair 1.25
Team goals
NEC to score90%fair 1.11
Ntugasaze to score46%fair 2.19
NEC clean sheet54%fair 1.84
Ntugasaze clean sheet10%fair 10.31
NEC to win to nil50%fair 2.00
Ntugasaze to win to nil8%fair 12.82
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-014.4%
1-012.3%
3-011.1%
2-18.8%
1-17.5%
3-16.8%
Half-time / full-time
NEC / NEC52.1%
Draw / NEC21.3%
Draw / Draw10.2%
Ntugasaze / Ntugasaze4.2%
Draw / Ntugasaze3.4%
Questions about NEC vs Ntugasaze
Who is favourite in NEC vs Ntugasaze?
The model gives NEC the best chance at 76%, with the draw at 16%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What is the correct score prediction for NEC vs Ntugasaze?
2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 14.4%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 56% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Ntugasaze?
The BTTS yes line is rated 42%. NEC find the net in 90% of simulated matches and Ntugasaze in 46%.
When is NEC vs Ntugasaze and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC on Tuesday, 27 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.